Mathematical Model of Enterprise with Revolving Funds Deficit: Analysis of Demand Shocks 2020

Russian enterprises of manufacturing complex are facing financial crisis because of the dramatic drop in demand for products due to the pandemic. Since a significant part of the population is employed in this sector, measures to support production in manufacturing industries are discussed at various levels. Based on the mathematical model of production, taking into account unstable demand, we propose a methodology for analyzing the effectiveness of support measures. Financial performance of the enterprise are calculated using an analytical solution of the Bellman equation that determines the valuation of the company, as well as the ergodicity property of the random process of product sales. The application of the methodology is illustrated by the example of KAMAZ Group.