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A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality

Premature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson’s theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations a...

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Autores principales: Zanotto, Lucia, Canudas-Romo, Vladimir, Mazzuco, Stefano
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7865056/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33597834
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09552-x
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author Zanotto, Lucia
Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
Mazzuco, Stefano
author_facet Zanotto, Lucia
Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
Mazzuco, Stefano
author_sort Zanotto, Lucia
collection PubMed
description Premature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson’s theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations are introduced. The model is a mixture of three distributions: a Half Normal for the first part of the death curve and two Skew Normals to fit the remaining pieces. One advantage of the model is the possibility of obtaining an explicit equation to compute life expectancy at birth and to break it down into mortality components. We estimated the mixture model for Sweden, France, East Germany and Czech Republic. In addition, to the well-known reduction in infant deaths, and compression and shifting trend of adult mortality, we were able to study the trend of the central part of the distribution of deaths in detail. In general, a right shift of the modal age at death for young adults is observed; in some cases, it is also accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths at these ages: in particular for France, in the last twenty years, premature mortality increases.
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spelling pubmed-78650562021-02-16 A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality Zanotto, Lucia Canudas-Romo, Vladimir Mazzuco, Stefano Eur J Popul Article Premature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson’s theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations are introduced. The model is a mixture of three distributions: a Half Normal for the first part of the death curve and two Skew Normals to fit the remaining pieces. One advantage of the model is the possibility of obtaining an explicit equation to compute life expectancy at birth and to break it down into mortality components. We estimated the mixture model for Sweden, France, East Germany and Czech Republic. In addition, to the well-known reduction in infant deaths, and compression and shifting trend of adult mortality, we were able to study the trend of the central part of the distribution of deaths in detail. In general, a right shift of the modal age at death for young adults is observed; in some cases, it is also accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths at these ages: in particular for France, in the last twenty years, premature mortality increases. Springer Netherlands 2020-03-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7865056/ /pubmed/33597834 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09552-x Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Zanotto, Lucia
Canudas-Romo, Vladimir
Mazzuco, Stefano
A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title_full A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title_fullStr A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title_full_unstemmed A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title_short A Mixture-Function Mortality Model: Illustration of the Evolution of Premature Mortality
title_sort mixture-function mortality model: illustration of the evolution of premature mortality
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7865056/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33597834
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09552-x
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