International estimates of intended uptake and refusal of COVID-19 vaccines: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of large nationally representative samples

BACKGROUND: Widespread uptake of COVID-19 vaccines will be essential to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccines have been developed in unprecedented time and quantifying levels of hesitancy towards vaccination among the general population is of importance. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies using large nationally representative samples (n ≥ 1000) to examine the percentage of the population intending to vaccinate, unsure, or intending to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine when available. Generic inverse meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to pool estimates and examine time trends. PubMed, Scopus and pre-printer servers were searched from January-November 2020. Registered on PROSPERO (CRD42020223132). FINDINGS: Twenty-eight nationally representative samples (n = 58,656) from 13 countries indicate that as the pandemic has progressed, the percentage of people intending to vaccinate decreased and the percentage of people intending to refuse vaccination increased. Pooled data from surveys conducted during June-October suggest that 60% (95% CI: 49% to 69%) intend to vaccinate and 20% (95% CI: 13% to 29%) intend to refuse vaccination, although intentions vary substantially between samples and countries (I(2) > 90%). Being female, younger, of lower income or education level and belonging to an ethnic minority group were consistently associated with being less likely to intend to vaccinate. Findings were consistent across higher vs. lower quality studies. INTERPRETATION: Intentions to be vaccinated when a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available have been declining across countries and there is an urgent need to address social inequalities in vaccine hesitancy and promote widespread uptake of vaccines as they become available. FUNDING: N/A.