A nomogram for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in T1–2 non-small-cell lung cancer based on PET/CT and clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND: Accurately predicting the risk level for a lymph node metastasis is critical in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to construct a novel nomogram to identify patients with a risk of lymph node metastasis in T1–2 NSCLC based on positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) and clinical characteristics. METHODS: From January 2011 to November 2017, the records of 318 consecutive patients who had undergone PET/CT examination within 30 days before surgical resection for clinical T1–2 NSCLC were retrospectively reviewed. A nomogram to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis was constructed. The model was confirmed using bootstrap resampling, and an independent validation cohort contained 156 patients from June 2017 to February 2020 at another institution. RESULTS: Six factors [age, tumor location, histology, the lymph node maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), the tumor SUVmax and the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) value] were identified and entered into the nomogram. The nomogram developed based on the analysis showed robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.858 in the primary cohort and 0.749 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve for the probability of lymph node metastasis showed excellent concordance between the predicted and actual results. Decision curve analysis suggested that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSIONS: We set up and validated a novel and effective nomogram that can predict the risk of lymph node metastasis for individual patients with T1–2 NSCLC. This model may help clinicians to make treatment recommendations for individuals.