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A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project
BACKGROUND: A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
AME Publishing Company
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7867931/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33569469 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/atm-21-31 |
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author | Ran, Peng Yang, Jun-Qing Li, Jie Li, Guang Wang, Yan Qiu, Jia Zhong, Qi Wang, Yu Wei, Xue-Biao Huang, Jie-Leng Siu, Chung-Wah Zhou, Ying-Ling Zhao, Dong Yu, Dan-Qing Chen, Ji-Yan |
author_facet | Ran, Peng Yang, Jun-Qing Li, Jie Li, Guang Wang, Yan Qiu, Jia Zhong, Qi Wang, Yu Wei, Xue-Biao Huang, Jie-Leng Siu, Chung-Wah Zhou, Ying-Ling Zhao, Dong Yu, Dan-Qing Chen, Ji-Yan |
author_sort | Ran, Peng |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS using variables available at early medical contact. METHODS: A total of 62,546 unselected ACS patients from 150 tertiary hospitals who were admitted between 2014 and 2017 and enrolled in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) project, were randomly assigned (at a ratio of 7:3) to a training dataset (n=43,774) and a validation dataset (n=18,772). Based on the identified predictors which were available prior to any blood test, a new point-based risk score for in-hospital death, CCC-ACS score, was derived and validated. The CCC-ACS score was then compared with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9% in both the training and validation datasets. The CCC-ACS score, a new point-based risk score, was developed to predict in-hospital mortality using 7 variables that were available before any blood test including age, systolic blood pressure, cardiac arrest, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, history of heart failure, severe clinical conditions (acute heart failure or cardiogenic shock), and electrocardiographic ST-segment deviation. This new risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (P=0.10 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the training dataset and 0.85 (P=0.13 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the validation dataset. The CCC-ACS score was comparable to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of in-hospital death in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed CCC-ACS score, which utilizes factors that are acquirable at early medical contact, may be able to stratify the risk of in-hospital death in patients with ACS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02306616. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7867931 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | AME Publishing Company |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78679312021-02-09 A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project Ran, Peng Yang, Jun-Qing Li, Jie Li, Guang Wang, Yan Qiu, Jia Zhong, Qi Wang, Yu Wei, Xue-Biao Huang, Jie-Leng Siu, Chung-Wah Zhou, Ying-Ling Zhao, Dong Yu, Dan-Qing Chen, Ji-Yan Ann Transl Med Original Article BACKGROUND: A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS using variables available at early medical contact. METHODS: A total of 62,546 unselected ACS patients from 150 tertiary hospitals who were admitted between 2014 and 2017 and enrolled in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) project, were randomly assigned (at a ratio of 7:3) to a training dataset (n=43,774) and a validation dataset (n=18,772). Based on the identified predictors which were available prior to any blood test, a new point-based risk score for in-hospital death, CCC-ACS score, was derived and validated. The CCC-ACS score was then compared with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9% in both the training and validation datasets. The CCC-ACS score, a new point-based risk score, was developed to predict in-hospital mortality using 7 variables that were available before any blood test including age, systolic blood pressure, cardiac arrest, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, history of heart failure, severe clinical conditions (acute heart failure or cardiogenic shock), and electrocardiographic ST-segment deviation. This new risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (P=0.10 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the training dataset and 0.85 (P=0.13 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the validation dataset. The CCC-ACS score was comparable to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of in-hospital death in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed CCC-ACS score, which utilizes factors that are acquirable at early medical contact, may be able to stratify the risk of in-hospital death in patients with ACS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02306616. AME Publishing Company 2021-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7867931/ /pubmed/33569469 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/atm-21-31 Text en 2021 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Article Ran, Peng Yang, Jun-Qing Li, Jie Li, Guang Wang, Yan Qiu, Jia Zhong, Qi Wang, Yu Wei, Xue-Biao Huang, Jie-Leng Siu, Chung-Wah Zhou, Ying-Ling Zhao, Dong Yu, Dan-Qing Chen, Ji-Yan A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title | A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title_full | A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title_fullStr | A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title_full_unstemmed | A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title_short | A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project |
title_sort | risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the improving care for cardiovascular disease in china-acute coronary syndrome (ccc-acs) project |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7867931/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33569469 http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/atm-21-31 |
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