Impact of simulated cigarette excise tax increase on its consumption in Iran

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of a simulated tax-induced cigarette price increase on its consumption by different expenditure clusters in Iran. METHODS: Employing consecutive cross sections for cigarette consumption, a two-part model was applied for different expenditure groups. RESULTS: A 75% price increase in cigarettes noticeably— as is common in some countries with strong tobacco control policies—reduces current consumption in all five social classes, causing nearly 8% of current male smokers to quit or not to start. CONCLUSIONS: Findings of the current study suggest that Iranian policy makers go through to implement tobacco taxation policies to control smoking prevalence, which in turn might lead to a reduction in national healthcare expenditures as well as enhance the global community’s capacity to meet Sustainable Development Goals.