An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia

The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and dea...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Abdy, Muhammad, Side, Syafruddin, Annas, Suwardi, Nur, Wahyuddin, Sanusi, Wahidah
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2021
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7877290/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33613667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03263-6
Descripción
Sumario:The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model’s equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia.

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