An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia

The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and dea...

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Autores principales: Abdy, Muhammad, Side, Syafruddin, Annas, Suwardi, Nur, Wahyuddin, Sanusi, Wahidah
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2021
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7877290/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33613667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03263-6
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author Abdy, Muhammad
Side, Syafruddin
Annas, Suwardi
Nur, Wahyuddin
Sanusi, Wahidah
author_facet Abdy, Muhammad
Side, Syafruddin
Annas, Suwardi
Nur, Wahyuddin
Sanusi, Wahidah
author_sort Abdy, Muhammad
collection PubMed
description The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model’s equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia.
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spelling pubmed-78772902021-02-16 An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia Abdy, Muhammad Side, Syafruddin Annas, Suwardi Nur, Wahyuddin Sanusi, Wahidah Adv Differ Equ Research The aim of this research is to construct an SIR model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The SIR model is constructed by considering the factors of vaccination, treatment, obedience in implementing health protocols, and the corona virus-load. Parameters of the infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate due to COVID-19 are constructed as a fuzzy number, and their membership functions are used in the model as fuzzy parameters. The model analysis uses the generation matrix method to obtain the basic reproduction number and the stability of the model’s equilibrium points. Simulation results show that differences in corona virus-loads will also cause differences in the transmission of COVID-19. Likewise, the factors of vaccination and obedience in implementing health protocols have the same effect in slowing or stopping the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia. Springer International Publishing 2021-02-11 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7877290/ /pubmed/33613667 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03263-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Abdy, Muhammad
Side, Syafruddin
Annas, Suwardi
Nur, Wahyuddin
Sanusi, Wahidah
An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title_full An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title_fullStr An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title_short An SIR epidemic model for COVID-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of Indonesia
title_sort sir epidemic model for covid-19 spread with fuzzy parameter: the case of indonesia
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7877290/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33613667
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03263-6
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