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COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission

The outbreak of coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented rate to the human populations and taking several thousands of life all over the globe. In this paper, an extension of the well-known susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) family of compartmental model has been introduced with seaso...

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Autor principal: Batabyal, Saikat
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879134/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33612999
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110772
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author Batabyal, Saikat
author_facet Batabyal, Saikat
author_sort Batabyal, Saikat
collection PubMed
description The outbreak of coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented rate to the human populations and taking several thousands of life all over the globe. In this paper, an extension of the well-known susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) family of compartmental model has been introduced with seasonality transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The stability analysis of the coronavirus depends on changing of its basic reproductive ratio. The progress rate of the virus in critical infected cases and the recovery rate have major roles to control this epidemic. Selecting the appropriate critical parameter from the Turing domain, the stability properties of existing patterns is obtained. The outcomes of theoretical studies, which are illustrated via Hopf bifurcation and Turing instabilities, yield the result of numerical simulations around the critical parameter to forecast on controlling this fatal disease. Globally existing solutions of the model has been studied by introducing Tikhonov regularization. The impact of social distancing, lockdown of the country, self-isolation, home quarantine and the wariness of global public health system have significant influence on the parameters of the model system that can alter the effect of recovery rates, mortality rates and active contaminated cases with the progression of time in the real world.
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spelling pubmed-78791342021-02-16 COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission Batabyal, Saikat Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The outbreak of coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented rate to the human populations and taking several thousands of life all over the globe. In this paper, an extension of the well-known susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) family of compartmental model has been introduced with seasonality transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The stability analysis of the coronavirus depends on changing of its basic reproductive ratio. The progress rate of the virus in critical infected cases and the recovery rate have major roles to control this epidemic. Selecting the appropriate critical parameter from the Turing domain, the stability properties of existing patterns is obtained. The outcomes of theoretical studies, which are illustrated via Hopf bifurcation and Turing instabilities, yield the result of numerical simulations around the critical parameter to forecast on controlling this fatal disease. Globally existing solutions of the model has been studied by introducing Tikhonov regularization. The impact of social distancing, lockdown of the country, self-isolation, home quarantine and the wariness of global public health system have significant influence on the parameters of the model system that can alter the effect of recovery rates, mortality rates and active contaminated cases with the progression of time in the real world. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-04 2021-02-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7879134/ /pubmed/33612999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110772 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Batabyal, Saikat
COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title_full COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title_fullStr COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title_short COVID-19: Perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
title_sort covid-19: perturbation dynamics resulting chaos to stable with seasonality transmission
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7879134/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33612999
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110772
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