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A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries

We have presented in the current analytic research the generating formulae and results of direct mathematical modelling of non-classical trends for COVID-19’s evolution in world which, nevertheless, can be divided into two types: (1) the general trends for European countries such as Germany presente...

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Autores principales: Ershkov, Sergey V., Rachinskaya, Alla
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7882251/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33612969
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-06244-2
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author Ershkov, Sergey V.
Rachinskaya, Alla
author_facet Ershkov, Sergey V.
Rachinskaya, Alla
author_sort Ershkov, Sergey V.
collection PubMed
description We have presented in the current analytic research the generating formulae and results of direct mathematical modelling of non-classical trends for COVID-19’s evolution in world which, nevertheless, can be divided into two types: (1) the general trends for European countries such as Germany presented by the curve of modified sigmoid-type with up-inclination of the upper limit of saturation (at the end of first wave of pandemic) as well as for other cases of key countries that suffered from pandemic such as USA, India, Brazil, Russia (we conclude that the same type of coronavirus pandemic is valid for most of the countries in world with similar scenarios of the same type for general trends); (2) non-classical general trends for Middle East countries (such as Iran), with the appropriate bulge on graphical plots at the beginning of first wave of pandemic. We expect that the second wave of pandemic will pass its peak at the end of December 2020 for various countries. Moreover, the second wave of pandemic will have come to end at first decade of January 2021 in Germany and Iran (but at the end of January 2021 in India as well), so we should restrict ourselves in modelling the first and second waves of pandemic within this time period for these countries. Thus, the model of first approximation is considered here which allows to understand the mean-time trends of COVID-19 evolution for the first + second waves of pandemic for USA, Brazil and Russia, or predict the approximated time period of the upcoming third wave of pandemic in cases of India, Germany and Iran.
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spelling pubmed-78822512021-02-16 A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries Ershkov, Sergey V. Rachinskaya, Alla Nonlinear Dyn Original Paper We have presented in the current analytic research the generating formulae and results of direct mathematical modelling of non-classical trends for COVID-19’s evolution in world which, nevertheless, can be divided into two types: (1) the general trends for European countries such as Germany presented by the curve of modified sigmoid-type with up-inclination of the upper limit of saturation (at the end of first wave of pandemic) as well as for other cases of key countries that suffered from pandemic such as USA, India, Brazil, Russia (we conclude that the same type of coronavirus pandemic is valid for most of the countries in world with similar scenarios of the same type for general trends); (2) non-classical general trends for Middle East countries (such as Iran), with the appropriate bulge on graphical plots at the beginning of first wave of pandemic. We expect that the second wave of pandemic will pass its peak at the end of December 2020 for various countries. Moreover, the second wave of pandemic will have come to end at first decade of January 2021 in Germany and Iran (but at the end of January 2021 in India as well), so we should restrict ourselves in modelling the first and second waves of pandemic within this time period for these countries. Thus, the model of first approximation is considered here which allows to understand the mean-time trends of COVID-19 evolution for the first + second waves of pandemic for USA, Brazil and Russia, or predict the approximated time period of the upcoming third wave of pandemic in cases of India, Germany and Iran. Springer Netherlands 2021-02-14 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7882251/ /pubmed/33612969 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-06244-2 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Ershkov, Sergey V.
Rachinskaya, Alla
A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title_full A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title_fullStr A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title_full_unstemmed A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title_short A new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
title_sort new approximation of mean-time trends for the second wave of covid-19 pandemic evolving in key six countries
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7882251/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33612969
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-021-06244-2
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