An improved clinical prediction rule for identifying neonatal bacterial meningitis: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND: To refine the bacterial meningitis (BM) score by improving its predictability of neonatal BM. METHODS: A multicenter, ambispective cohort study was conducted in China, comprising 9 hospitals (retrospective cohort: January 2001 to December 2017; prospective cohort: January 2018 to August 2019). Of 3,504 eligible full-term neonates, 475 neonates with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis were included. Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analyses, the BM score was refined by changing the thresholds of CSF protein level and the CSF absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and removing some variables (the peripheral blood ANC and a history of seizure before or at the time of presentation). RESULTS: Of 475 neonates, 94 (19.8%) had BM. Based on the refined BM score, neonates with none of the following high-risk predictors were classified as being at very low risk for BM: CSF protein level ≥1,650 mg/L, CSF ANC ≥84×10(6) cells/L, and positive CSF Gram stain result. The refined score showed 100% sensitivity in identifying BM and much higher specificity compared to that for the BM score (70.9% vs. 19.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The refined BM score effectively identifies neonatal BM, and further studies are required to confirm our findings in prospective studies.