COVID‐19: Short‐Term Influence on China's Economy Considering Different Scenarios

Recently, most countries have entered the outbreak period of the novel coronavirus epidemic. This sudden outbreak has caused a huge impact on the global economy, which has intensified the division of globalization and the recession of the global economy. Although the epidemic situation in China has gradually stabilized, the severe situation in the world still inevitably impacts China's economy. Based on the uncertainty of future epidemic, this paper sets up three scenarios to analyze the impact of the epidemic on China's economy. The first is that in June, the epidemic both at home and abroad is under control without rebound; the second is that the domestic epidemic is basically controlled but the foreign situation is not effectively controlled; the third is that the epidemic situation in China has a serious rebound due to the influence of the imported cases from abroad, which destroy the economy again. At the same time, some corresponding guidelines are put forward for the recovery of economy, and to minimize the economic losses as well as accelerate the pace of national economic recovery. In addition, it is believed that these suggestions may have certain reference value to other countries.