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Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability
BACKGROUND: With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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BioMed Central
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7885460/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33588876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00666-x |
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author | Lamnisos, Demetris Giannakou, Konstantinos Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael) |
author_facet | Lamnisos, Demetris Giannakou, Konstantinos Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael) |
author_sort | Lamnisos, Demetris |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services. METHODS: The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015. RESULTS: The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100. CONCLUSIONS: Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7885460 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78854602021-02-17 Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability Lamnisos, Demetris Giannakou, Konstantinos Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael) Health Res Policy Syst Research BACKGROUND: With an increasing aging population and a lower ratio between the active and the dependent population, population aging is considered a global social and health challenge, associated with increased demand in health care needs and social pension. This study projects the Greek and Cypriot population to guide future planning of social and health policies and services. METHODS: The total population by sex and age groups, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life-expectancies at birth and Potential Support Ratio PSR (persons aged 20–64 years per person 65+ years) are projected probabilistically by the year 2100 using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations’ population data for Greece and Cyprus from the period of 1950 to 2015. RESULTS: The TFR is projected to be around 1.5 children per woman in 2050 and around 1.75 in 2100 for both countries, with all values of prediction intervals being around or below the Replacement level fertility. PSR is expected to decrease remarkably and be 2.5 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100 for Cyprus while for Greece it will be around 1.5 for both years 2050 and 2100. Life-expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 87 years for women in 2050 and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100 for both countries. The share of the population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase in both countries and be the one third of the population by 2100. CONCLUSIONS: Greece and Cyprus will acquire the characteristics of an aging population, putting a significance pressure on the social and health systems of both countries. Both countries should reform their social and health policy agenda to confront population aging and its consequence. They should adopt fertility incentives and family policies to increase fertility and migrants’ inclusiveness policies to improve the demographic structure and the economic activity. The national health systems should promote prevention strategies at the primary health sector and promote healthy aging while health research policy should aim to promote research in innovative technologies and digital health to create assistive technology for self-care and greater independence of older people. BioMed Central 2021-02-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7885460/ /pubmed/33588876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00666-x Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Lamnisos, Demetris Giannakou, Konstantinos Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (Michael) Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title | Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_full | Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_fullStr | Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_full_unstemmed | Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_short | Demographic forecasting of population aging in Greece and Cyprus: one big challenge for the Mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
title_sort | demographic forecasting of population aging in greece and cyprus: one big challenge for the mediterranean health and social system long-term sustainability |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7885460/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33588876 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12961-020-00666-x |
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