Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt

In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement wi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Raslan, W.E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. 2021
Materias:
Engineering Physics and Mathematics
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7885679/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.027
Descripción
Sumario:In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement with the actual reported data. The effect of precautionary measures on the behavior of the model was studied and it was confirmed that the quarantine period should be long enough to achieve the desired result.

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