Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt

In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement wi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Raslan, W.E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. 2021
Materias:
Engineering Physics and Mathematics
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7885679/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.027
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author Raslan, W.E.
author_facet Raslan, W.E.
author_sort Raslan, W.E.
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description In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement with the actual reported data. The effect of precautionary measures on the behavior of the model was studied and it was confirmed that the quarantine period should be long enough to achieve the desired result.
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spelling pubmed-78856792021-02-16 Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt Raslan, W.E. Ain Shams Engineering Journal Engineering Physics and Mathematics In this work the concept of fractional derivative is used to improve a mathematical model for the spread of the novel strain of corona virus disease COVID-19 in Egypt. We establish the dynamics model to predict the transmission of COVID-19. The results predicted by the model show a good agreement with the actual reported data. The effect of precautionary measures on the behavior of the model was studied and it was confirmed that the quarantine period should be long enough to achieve the desired result. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. 2021-09 2021-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7885679/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.027 Text en © 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Ain Shams University. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Engineering Physics and Mathematics
Raslan, W.E.
Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title_full Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title_fullStr Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title_full_unstemmed Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title_short Fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of COVID-19 in Egypt
title_sort fractional mathematical modeling for epidemic prediction of covid-19 in egypt
topic Engineering Physics and Mathematics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7885679/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2020.10.027
work_keys_str_mv AT raslanwe fractionalmathematicalmodelingforepidemicpredictionofcovid19inegypt

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