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Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewe...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7886206/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33592053 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490 |
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author | Kamsa-ard, Supot Santong, Chalongpon Kamsa-ard, Siriporn Luvira, Vor Luvira, Varisara Suwanrungruang, Krittika Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa |
author_facet | Kamsa-ard, Supot Santong, Chalongpon Kamsa-ard, Siriporn Luvira, Vor Luvira, Varisara Suwanrungruang, Krittika Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa |
author_sort | Kamsa-ard, Supot |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewed the CCA cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2018 recorded in the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models (APC model) were used to examine the temporal trends of CCA by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of CCA up to 2028 using three independent approaches: the Joinpoint, Age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Survival assessments were based on relative survival (RS). RESULTS: The respective APC in males and females decreased significantly (-3.1%; 95%CI: -4.0 to -2.1 and -2.4%; 95%CI: -3.6 to -1.2). The APC model—AC-P for male CCA—decreased according to a birth-cohort. The CCA incidence for males born in 1998 was 0.09 times higher than for those born in 1966 (Incidence rate ratios, IRR = 0.09; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.12). The relative incidence for female CCA similarly decreased according to a birth-cohort (IRR = 0.11; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.17). The respective projection for the age-standardized rate for males and females for 2028 will be 7.6 per 100,000 (102 patients) and 3.6 per 100,000 (140 patients). The five-year RS for CCA was 10.9% (95%CI: 10.3 to 11.6). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of CCA has decreased. The projection for 2028 is that the incidence will continue to decline. Nevertheless, the survival of patients with CCA remains poor. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7886206 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78862062021-02-23 Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 Kamsa-ard, Supot Santong, Chalongpon Kamsa-ard, Siriporn Luvira, Vor Luvira, Varisara Suwanrungruang, Krittika Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewed the CCA cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2018 recorded in the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models (APC model) were used to examine the temporal trends of CCA by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of CCA up to 2028 using three independent approaches: the Joinpoint, Age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Survival assessments were based on relative survival (RS). RESULTS: The respective APC in males and females decreased significantly (-3.1%; 95%CI: -4.0 to -2.1 and -2.4%; 95%CI: -3.6 to -1.2). The APC model—AC-P for male CCA—decreased according to a birth-cohort. The CCA incidence for males born in 1998 was 0.09 times higher than for those born in 1966 (Incidence rate ratios, IRR = 0.09; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.12). The relative incidence for female CCA similarly decreased according to a birth-cohort (IRR = 0.11; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.17). The respective projection for the age-standardized rate for males and females for 2028 will be 7.6 per 100,000 (102 patients) and 3.6 per 100,000 (140 patients). The five-year RS for CCA was 10.9% (95%CI: 10.3 to 11.6). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of CCA has decreased. The projection for 2028 is that the incidence will continue to decline. Nevertheless, the survival of patients with CCA remains poor. Public Library of Science 2021-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7886206/ /pubmed/33592053 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490 Text en © 2021 Kamsa-ard et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kamsa-ard, Supot Santong, Chalongpon Kamsa-ard, Siriporn Luvira, Vor Luvira, Varisara Suwanrungruang, Krittika Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title | Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title_full | Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title_fullStr | Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title_full_unstemmed | Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title_short | Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
title_sort | decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in khon kaen, thailand: an updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7886206/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33592053 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490 |
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