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Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018

BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewe...

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Autores principales: Kamsa-ard, Supot, Santong, Chalongpon, Kamsa-ard, Siriporn, Luvira, Vor, Luvira, Varisara, Suwanrungruang, Krittika, Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7886206/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33592053
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490
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author Kamsa-ard, Supot
Santong, Chalongpon
Kamsa-ard, Siriporn
Luvira, Vor
Luvira, Varisara
Suwanrungruang, Krittika
Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa
author_facet Kamsa-ard, Supot
Santong, Chalongpon
Kamsa-ard, Siriporn
Luvira, Vor
Luvira, Varisara
Suwanrungruang, Krittika
Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa
author_sort Kamsa-ard, Supot
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewed the CCA cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2018 recorded in the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models (APC model) were used to examine the temporal trends of CCA by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of CCA up to 2028 using three independent approaches: the Joinpoint, Age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Survival assessments were based on relative survival (RS). RESULTS: The respective APC in males and females decreased significantly (-3.1%; 95%CI: -4.0 to -2.1 and -2.4%; 95%CI: -3.6 to -1.2). The APC model—AC-P for male CCA—decreased according to a birth-cohort. The CCA incidence for males born in 1998 was 0.09 times higher than for those born in 1966 (Incidence rate ratios, IRR = 0.09; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.12). The relative incidence for female CCA similarly decreased according to a birth-cohort (IRR = 0.11; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.17). The respective projection for the age-standardized rate for males and females for 2028 will be 7.6 per 100,000 (102 patients) and 3.6 per 100,000 (140 patients). The five-year RS for CCA was 10.9% (95%CI: 10.3 to 11.6). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of CCA has decreased. The projection for 2028 is that the incidence will continue to decline. Nevertheless, the survival of patients with CCA remains poor.
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spelling pubmed-78862062021-02-23 Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018 Kamsa-ard, Supot Santong, Chalongpon Kamsa-ard, Siriporn Luvira, Vor Luvira, Varisara Suwanrungruang, Krittika Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a leading cause of cancer death in northeastern Thailand. We reported on the incidence of CCA using only one method. In the current study, we used three different statistical methods to forecast future trends and estimate relative survival. METHODS: We reviewed the CCA cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2018 recorded in the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry (KKCR). Annual percent change (APC) was calculated to quantify the incidence rate trends using Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models (APC model) were used to examine the temporal trends of CCA by age, calendar year, and birth cohort. We projected the incidence of CCA up to 2028 using three independent approaches: the Joinpoint, Age-period-cohort, and Nordpred models. Survival assessments were based on relative survival (RS). RESULTS: The respective APC in males and females decreased significantly (-3.1%; 95%CI: -4.0 to -2.1 and -2.4%; 95%CI: -3.6 to -1.2). The APC model—AC-P for male CCA—decreased according to a birth-cohort. The CCA incidence for males born in 1998 was 0.09 times higher than for those born in 1966 (Incidence rate ratios, IRR = 0.09; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.12). The relative incidence for female CCA similarly decreased according to a birth-cohort (IRR = 0.11; 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.17). The respective projection for the age-standardized rate for males and females for 2028 will be 7.6 per 100,000 (102 patients) and 3.6 per 100,000 (140 patients). The five-year RS for CCA was 10.9% (95%CI: 10.3 to 11.6). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of CCA has decreased. The projection for 2028 is that the incidence will continue to decline. Nevertheless, the survival of patients with CCA remains poor. Public Library of Science 2021-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7886206/ /pubmed/33592053 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490 Text en © 2021 Kamsa-ard et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kamsa-ard, Supot
Santong, Chalongpon
Kamsa-ard, Siriporn
Luvira, Vor
Luvira, Varisara
Suwanrungruang, Krittika
Bhudhisawasdi, Vajarabhongsa
Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title_full Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title_fullStr Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title_full_unstemmed Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title_short Decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in Khon Kaen, Thailand: An updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
title_sort decreasing trends in cholangiocarcinoma incidence and relative survival in khon kaen, thailand: an updated, inclusive, population-based cancer registry analysis for 1989–2018
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7886206/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33592053
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246490
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