In Silico Models to Predict the Perturbation of Molecular Initiating Events Related to Thyroid Hormone Homeostasis

[Image: see text] Disturbance of the thyroid hormone homeostasis has been associated with adverse health effects such as goiters and impaired mental development in humans and thyroid tumors in rats. In vitro and in silico methods for predicting the effects of small molecules on thyroid hormone homeostasis are currently being explored as alternatives to animal experiments, but are still in an early stage of development. The aim of this work was the development of a battery of in silico models for a set of targets involved in molecular initiating events of thyroid hormone homeostasis: deiodinases 1, 2, and 3, thyroid peroxidase (TPO), thyroid hormone receptor (TR), sodium/iodide symporter, thyrotropin-releasing hormone receptor, and thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor. The training data sets were compiled from the ToxCast database and related scientific literature. Classical statistical approaches as well as several machine learning methods (including random forest, support vector machine, and neural networks) were explored in combination with three data balancing techniques. The models were trained on molecular descriptors and fingerprints and evaluated on holdout data. Furthermore, multi-task neural networks combining several end points were investigated as a possible way to improve the performance of models for which the experimental data available for model training are limited. Classifiers for TPO and TR performed particularly well, with F1 scores of 0.83 and 0.81 on the holdout data set, respectively. Models for the other studied targets yielded F1 scores of up to 0.77. An in-depth analysis of the reliability of predictions was performed for the most relevant models. All data sets used in this work for model development and validation are available in the Supporting Information.