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Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we chara...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7889876/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33597546 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 |
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author | Nouvellet, Pierre Bhatia, Sangeeta Cori, Anne Ainslie, Kylie E. C. Baguelin, Marc Bhatt, Samir Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Brazeau, Nicholas F. Cattarino, Lorenzo Cooper, Laura V. Coupland, Helen Cucunuba, Zulma M. Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Dighe, Amy Djaafara, Bimandra A. Dorigatti, Ilaria Eales, Oliver D. van Elsland, Sabine L. Nascimento, Fabricia F. FitzJohn, Richard G. Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Geidelberg, Lily Green, William D. Hamlet, Arran Hauck, Katharina Hinsley, Wes Imai, Natsuko Jeffrey, Benjamin Knock, Edward Laydon, Daniel J. Lees, John A. Mangal, Tara Mellan, Thomas A. Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Parag, Kris V. Pons-Salort, Margarita Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon Riley, Steven Unwin, H. Juliette T. Verity, Robert Vollmer, Michaela A. C. Volz, Erik Walker, Patrick G. T. Walters, Caroline E. Wang, Haowei Watson, Oliver J. Whittaker, Charles Whittles, Lilith K. Xi, Xiaoyue Ferguson, Neil M. Donnelly, Christl A. |
author_facet | Nouvellet, Pierre Bhatia, Sangeeta Cori, Anne Ainslie, Kylie E. C. Baguelin, Marc Bhatt, Samir Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Brazeau, Nicholas F. Cattarino, Lorenzo Cooper, Laura V. Coupland, Helen Cucunuba, Zulma M. Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Dighe, Amy Djaafara, Bimandra A. Dorigatti, Ilaria Eales, Oliver D. van Elsland, Sabine L. Nascimento, Fabricia F. FitzJohn, Richard G. Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Geidelberg, Lily Green, William D. Hamlet, Arran Hauck, Katharina Hinsley, Wes Imai, Natsuko Jeffrey, Benjamin Knock, Edward Laydon, Daniel J. Lees, John A. Mangal, Tara Mellan, Thomas A. Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Parag, Kris V. Pons-Salort, Margarita Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon Riley, Steven Unwin, H. Juliette T. Verity, Robert Vollmer, Michaela A. C. Volz, Erik Walker, Patrick G. T. Walters, Caroline E. Wang, Haowei Watson, Oliver J. Whittaker, Charles Whittles, Lilith K. Xi, Xiaoyue Ferguson, Neil M. Donnelly, Christl A. |
author_sort | Nouvellet, Pierre |
collection | PubMed |
description | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7889876 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78898762021-03-03 Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission Nouvellet, Pierre Bhatia, Sangeeta Cori, Anne Ainslie, Kylie E. C. Baguelin, Marc Bhatt, Samir Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Brazeau, Nicholas F. Cattarino, Lorenzo Cooper, Laura V. Coupland, Helen Cucunuba, Zulma M. Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Dighe, Amy Djaafara, Bimandra A. Dorigatti, Ilaria Eales, Oliver D. van Elsland, Sabine L. Nascimento, Fabricia F. FitzJohn, Richard G. Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Geidelberg, Lily Green, William D. Hamlet, Arran Hauck, Katharina Hinsley, Wes Imai, Natsuko Jeffrey, Benjamin Knock, Edward Laydon, Daniel J. Lees, John A. Mangal, Tara Mellan, Thomas A. Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Parag, Kris V. Pons-Salort, Margarita Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon Riley, Steven Unwin, H. Juliette T. Verity, Robert Vollmer, Michaela A. C. Volz, Erik Walker, Patrick G. T. Walters, Caroline E. Wang, Haowei Watson, Oliver J. Whittaker, Charles Whittles, Lilith K. Xi, Xiaoyue Ferguson, Neil M. Donnelly, Christl A. Nat Commun Article In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7889876/ /pubmed/33597546 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Nouvellet, Pierre Bhatia, Sangeeta Cori, Anne Ainslie, Kylie E. C. Baguelin, Marc Bhatt, Samir Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Brazeau, Nicholas F. Cattarino, Lorenzo Cooper, Laura V. Coupland, Helen Cucunuba, Zulma M. Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina Dighe, Amy Djaafara, Bimandra A. Dorigatti, Ilaria Eales, Oliver D. van Elsland, Sabine L. Nascimento, Fabricia F. FitzJohn, Richard G. Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. Geidelberg, Lily Green, William D. Hamlet, Arran Hauck, Katharina Hinsley, Wes Imai, Natsuko Jeffrey, Benjamin Knock, Edward Laydon, Daniel J. Lees, John A. Mangal, Tara Mellan, Thomas A. Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma Parag, Kris V. Pons-Salort, Margarita Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon Riley, Steven Unwin, H. Juliette T. Verity, Robert Vollmer, Michaela A. C. Volz, Erik Walker, Patrick G. T. Walters, Caroline E. Wang, Haowei Watson, Oliver J. Whittaker, Charles Whittles, Lilith K. Xi, Xiaoyue Ferguson, Neil M. Donnelly, Christl A. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title_full | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title_fullStr | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title_full_unstemmed | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title_short | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
title_sort | reduction in mobility and covid-19 transmission |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7889876/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33597546 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2 |
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