Development and validation of an online model to predict critical COVID-19 with immune-inflammatory parameters

BACKGROUND: Immune and inflammatory dysfunction was reported to underpin critical COVID-19(coronavirus disease 2019). We aim to develop a machine learning model that enables accurate prediction of critical COVID-19 using immune-inflammatory features at admission. METHODS: We retrospectively collected 2076 consecutive COVID-19 patients with definite outcomes (discharge or death) between January 27, 2020 and March 30, 2020 from two hospitals in China. Critical illness was defined as admission to intensive care unit, receiving invasive ventilation, or death. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection. Five machine learning algorithms, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Neural Network (NN) were built in a training dataset, and assessed in an internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. RESULTS: Six features (procalcitonin, [T + B + NK cell] count, interleukin 6, C reactive protein, interleukin 2 receptor, T-helper lymphocyte/T-suppressor lymphocyte) were finally used for model development. Five models displayed varying but all promising predictive performance. Notably, the ensemble model, SPMCIIP (severity prediction model for COVID-19 by immune-inflammatory parameters), derived from three contributive algorithms (SVM, GBDT, and NN) achieved the best performance with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.991 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.979–1.000) in internal validation cohort and 0.999 (95% CI 0.998–1.000) in external validation cohort to identify patients with critical COVID-19. SPMCIIP could accurately and expeditiously predict the occurrence of critical COVID-19 approximately 20 days in advance. CONCLUSIONS: The developed online prediction model SPMCIIP is hopeful to facilitate intensive monitoring and early intervention of high risk of critical illness in COVID-19 patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2000032161). GRAPHICAL ABSTRACTHELPER LYMPHOCYTVE: vv [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-021-00531-1.