Practical model to identify liver transplant recipients at low risk of postoperative haemorrhage, bile leakage and ascites

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify a subgroup of recipients at low risk of haemorrhage, bile leakage and ascites following liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: Factors associated with significant postoperative ascites (more than 10 ml/kg on postoperative day 5), bile leakage and haemorrhage after LT were identified using three separate multivariable analyses in patients who had LT in 2010–2019. A model predicting the absence of all three outcomes was created and validated internally using bootstrap procedure. RESULTS: Overall, 944 recipients underwent LT. Rates of ascites, bile leakage and haemorrhage were 34.9, 7.7 and 6.0 per cent respectively. The 90-day mortality rate was 7.0 per cent. Partial liver graft (relative risk (RR) 1.31; P = 0.021), intraoperative ascites (more than 10 ml/kg suctioned after laparotomy) (RR 2.05; P = 0.001), malnutrition (RR 1.27; P = 0.006), portal vein thrombosis (RR 1.56; P = 0.024) and intraoperative blood loss greater than 1000 ml (RR 1.39; P = 0.003) were independently associated with postoperative ascites and/or bile leak and/or haemorrhage, and were introduced in the model. The model was well calibrated and predicted the absence of all three outcomes with an area under the curve of 0.76 (P = 0.001). Of the 944 patients, 218 (23.1 per cent) fulfilled the five criteria of the model, and 9.6 per cent experienced postoperative ascites (RR 0.22; P = 0.001), 1.8 per cent haemorrhage (RR 0.21; P = 0.033), 4.1 per cent bile leak (RR 0.54; P = 0.048), 40.4 per cent severe complications (RR 0.70; P = 0.001) and 1.4 per cent 90-day mortality (RR 0.13; P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: A practical model has been provided to identify patients at low risk of ascites, bile leakage and haemorrhage after LT; these patients could potentially qualify for inclusion in non-abdominal drainage protocols.