Cargando…
INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia
The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and comput...
Autores principales: | , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7894857/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33606714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245787 |
_version_ | 1783653312972718080 |
---|---|
author | Gomez, Jonatan Prieto, Jeisson Leon, Elizabeth Rodríguez, Arles |
author_facet | Gomez, Jonatan Prieto, Jeisson Leon, Elizabeth Rodríguez, Arles |
author_sort | Gomez, Jonatan |
collection | PubMed |
description | The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a ‘medium’ (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7894857 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-78948572021-03-01 INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia Gomez, Jonatan Prieto, Jeisson Leon, Elizabeth Rodríguez, Arles PLoS One Research Article The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus—COVID-19—have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a ‘medium’ (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission. Public Library of Science 2021-02-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7894857/ /pubmed/33606714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245787 Text en © 2021 Gomez et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Gomez, Jonatan Prieto, Jeisson Leon, Elizabeth Rodríguez, Arles INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title | INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title_full | INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title_fullStr | INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title_full_unstemmed | INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title_short | INFEKTA—An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia |
title_sort | infekta—an agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: the covid-19 case in bogotá, colombia |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7894857/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33606714 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0245787 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT gomezjonatan infektaanagentbasedmodelfortransmissionofinfectiousdiseasesthecovid19caseinbogotacolombia AT prietojeisson infektaanagentbasedmodelfortransmissionofinfectiousdiseasesthecovid19caseinbogotacolombia AT leonelizabeth infektaanagentbasedmodelfortransmissionofinfectiousdiseasesthecovid19caseinbogotacolombia AT rodriguezarles infektaanagentbasedmodelfortransmissionofinfectiousdiseasesthecovid19caseinbogotacolombia |