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ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES
Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer w...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7900876/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33628400 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007821500020 |
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author | MOORE, CHRIS MORLEY, JAMES W. MORRISON, BRIAN KOLIAN, MICHAEL HORSCH, ERIC FRÖLICHER, THOMAS PINSKY, MALIN L. GRIFFIS, ROGER |
author_facet | MOORE, CHRIS MORLEY, JAMES W. MORRISON, BRIAN KOLIAN, MICHAEL HORSCH, ERIC FRÖLICHER, THOMAS PINSKY, MALIN L. GRIFFIS, ROGER |
author_sort | MOORE, CHRIS |
collection | PubMed |
description | Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278–901 million by 2100. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7900876 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79008762021-02-23 ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES MOORE, CHRIS MORLEY, JAMES W. MORRISON, BRIAN KOLIAN, MICHAEL HORSCH, ERIC FRÖLICHER, THOMAS PINSKY, MALIN L. GRIFFIS, ROGER Clim Chang Econ (Singap) Article Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278–901 million by 2100. 2020-12-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7900876/ /pubmed/33628400 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007821500020 Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article published by World Scientific Publishing Company. It is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 (CC BY-NC) License which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original work is properly cited and is used for non-commercial purposes.. |
spellingShingle | Article MOORE, CHRIS MORLEY, JAMES W. MORRISON, BRIAN KOLIAN, MICHAEL HORSCH, ERIC FRÖLICHER, THOMAS PINSKY, MALIN L. GRIFFIS, ROGER ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title | ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title_full | ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title_fullStr | ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title_full_unstemmed | ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title_short | ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES |
title_sort | estimating the economic impacts of climate change on 16 major us fisheries |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7900876/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33628400 http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007821500020 |
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