An attempt at estrus detection in cattle by continuous measurements of ventral tail base surface temperature with supervised machine learning

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of estrus detection based on continuous measurements of the ventral tail base surface temperature (ST) with supervised machine learning in cattle. ST data were obtained through 51 estrus cycles on 11 female cattle (six Holsteins and five Japanese Blacks) using the tail-attached sensor. Three estrus detection models were constructed with the training data (n = 17) using machine learning techniques (random forest, artificial neural network, and support vector machine) based on 13 features extracted from sensing data (indicative of estrus-associated ST changes). Estrus detection abilities of the three models on test data (n = 34) were not statistically different among models in terms of sensitivity and precision (range 50.0% to 58.8% and 60.6% to 73.1%, respectively). The relatively poor performance of the models might indicate the difficulty of separating estrus-associated ST changes from estrus-independent fluctuations in ST.