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Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities

While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In thi...

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Autores principales: Chong, Ka Chun, Ran, Jinjun, Lau, Steven Yuk Fai, Goggins, William Bernard, Zhao, Shi, Wang, Pin, Tian, Linwei, Wang, Maggie Haitian, Mohammad, Kirran N., Wei, Lai, Xiong, Xi, Liu, Hengyan, Chan, Paul Kay Sheung, Wang, Huwen, Wang, Yawen, Wang, Jingxuan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7904227/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33626051
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009056
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author Chong, Ka Chun
Ran, Jinjun
Lau, Steven Yuk Fai
Goggins, William Bernard
Zhao, Shi
Wang, Pin
Tian, Linwei
Wang, Maggie Haitian
Mohammad, Kirran N.
Wei, Lai
Xiong, Xi
Liu, Hengyan
Chan, Paul Kay Sheung
Wang, Huwen
Wang, Yawen
Wang, Jingxuan
author_facet Chong, Ka Chun
Ran, Jinjun
Lau, Steven Yuk Fai
Goggins, William Bernard
Zhao, Shi
Wang, Pin
Tian, Linwei
Wang, Maggie Haitian
Mohammad, Kirran N.
Wei, Lai
Xiong, Xi
Liu, Hengyan
Chan, Paul Kay Sheung
Wang, Huwen
Wang, Yawen
Wang, Jingxuan
author_sort Chong, Ka Chun
collection PubMed
description While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.
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spelling pubmed-79042272021-03-03 Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities Chong, Ka Chun Ran, Jinjun Lau, Steven Yuk Fai Goggins, William Bernard Zhao, Shi Wang, Pin Tian, Linwei Wang, Maggie Haitian Mohammad, Kirran N. Wei, Lai Xiong, Xi Liu, Hengyan Chan, Paul Kay Sheung Wang, Huwen Wang, Yawen Wang, Jingxuan PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance. Public Library of Science 2021-02-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7904227/ /pubmed/33626051 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009056 Text en © 2021 Chong et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Chong, Ka Chun
Ran, Jinjun
Lau, Steven Yuk Fai
Goggins, William Bernard
Zhao, Shi
Wang, Pin
Tian, Linwei
Wang, Maggie Haitian
Mohammad, Kirran N.
Wei, Lai
Xiong, Xi
Liu, Hengyan
Chan, Paul Kay Sheung
Wang, Huwen
Wang, Yawen
Wang, Jingxuan
Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title_full Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title_fullStr Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title_full_unstemmed Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title_short Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities
title_sort limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in covid-19 incidence: a retrospective study of 102 chinese cities
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7904227/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33626051
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009056
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