Did the COVID-19 pandemic help or hurt Donald Trump’s political fortunes?

The COVID-19 pandemic likely had an effect on the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election. Was it responsible for the defeat of incumbent President Donald Trump? The present study makes an initial attempt at, and provides a model for, understanding the pandemic’s influence on Trump support. The study employed a mixed experimental and correlational design and surveyed separate samples of adults (N = 1,763) in six waves beginning March 23, 2020 and ending June 1, 2020. Participants were randomly assigned to report their Trump support either before or after being reminded of the pandemic with a series of questions gauging their level of concern about it. Results revealed complex and dynamic effects that changed over time. Depending on survey wave, the pandemic seems to have lowered Trump support among Democrats, while (marginally) raising it among independents. Republicans’ reactions also changed over time; of particular note, Republicans who were more concerned about the pandemic reported higher Trump support after being reminded of the pandemic in its early stages, but this effect reversed by the time the economy began reopening (coinciding with a dip in Trump’s approval ratings). Although the correlational results in the present study did not converge neatly with the experimental results, the combined experimental and correlational approach has the potential to increase researchers’ confidence in the causal effects of salient national and international events on political attitudes.