A practical laboratory index to predict institutionalization and mortality – an 18-year population-based follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Previously, several indexes based on a large number of clinical and laboratory tests to predict mortality and frailty have been produced. However, there is still a need for an easily applicable screening tool for every-day clinical practice. METHODS: A prospective study with 10- and 18-year follow-ups. Fourteen common laboratory tests were combined to an index. Cox regression model was used to analyse the association of the laboratory index with institutionalization and mortality. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants (n = 1153) was 73.6 (SD 6.8, range 64.0–100.0) years. Altogether, 151 (14.8%) and 305 (29.9%) subjects were institutionalized and 422 (36.6%) and 806 (69.9%) subjects deceased during the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, respectively. Higher LI (laboratory index) scores predicted increased mortality. Mortality rates increased as LI scores increased both in unadjusted and in age- and gender-adjusted models during both follow-ups. The LI did not significantly predict institutionalization either during the 10- or 18-year follow-ups. CONCLUSIONS: A practical index based on routine laboratory tests can be used to predict mortality among older people. An LI could be automatically counted from routine laboratory results and thus an easily applicable screening instrument in clinical settings.