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CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region
The first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy was detected on February the 20(th) in Lombardy region. Since that date, Lombardy has been the most affected Italian region by the epidemic, and its healthcare system underwent a severe overload during the outbreak. From a public health point of vi...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7906455/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33630966 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247854 |
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author | Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro Micheletti, Alessandra Maffeo, Manuel Zignani, Matteo Comunian, Alessandro Nicolussi, Federica Salini, Silvia Manzi, Giancarlo Auxilia, Francesco Giudici, Mauro Naldi, Giovanni Gaito, Sabrina Castaldi, Silvana Biganzoli, Elia |
author_facet | Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro Micheletti, Alessandra Maffeo, Manuel Zignani, Matteo Comunian, Alessandro Nicolussi, Federica Salini, Silvia Manzi, Giancarlo Auxilia, Francesco Giudici, Mauro Naldi, Giovanni Gaito, Sabrina Castaldi, Silvana Biganzoli, Elia |
author_sort | Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro |
collection | PubMed |
description | The first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy was detected on February the 20(th) in Lombardy region. Since that date, Lombardy has been the most affected Italian region by the epidemic, and its healthcare system underwent a severe overload during the outbreak. From a public health point of view, therefore, it is fundamental to provide healthcare services with tools that can reveal possible new health system stress periods with a certain time anticipation, which is the main aim of the present study. Moreover, the sequence of law decrees to face the epidemic and the large amount of news generated in the population feelings of anxiety and suspicion. Considering this whole complex context, it is easily understandable how people “overcrowded” social media with messages dealing with the pandemic, and emergency numbers were overwhelmed by the calls. Thus, in order to find potential predictors of possible new health system overloads, we analysed data both from Twitter and emergency services comparing them to the daily infected time series at a regional level. Particularly, we performed a wavelet analysis in the time-frequency plane, to finely discriminate over time the anticipation capability of the considered potential predictors. In addition, a cross-correlation analysis has been performed to find a synthetic indicator of the time delay between the predictor and the infected time series. Our results show that Twitter data are more related to social and political dynamics, while the emergency calls trends can be further evaluated as a powerful tool to potentially forecast new stress periods. Since we analysed aggregated regional data, and taking into account also the huge geographical heterogeneity of the epidemic spread, a future perspective would be to conduct the same analysis on a more local basis. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7906455 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79064552021-03-03 CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro Micheletti, Alessandra Maffeo, Manuel Zignani, Matteo Comunian, Alessandro Nicolussi, Federica Salini, Silvia Manzi, Giancarlo Auxilia, Francesco Giudici, Mauro Naldi, Giovanni Gaito, Sabrina Castaldi, Silvana Biganzoli, Elia PLoS One Research Article The first case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy was detected on February the 20(th) in Lombardy region. Since that date, Lombardy has been the most affected Italian region by the epidemic, and its healthcare system underwent a severe overload during the outbreak. From a public health point of view, therefore, it is fundamental to provide healthcare services with tools that can reveal possible new health system stress periods with a certain time anticipation, which is the main aim of the present study. Moreover, the sequence of law decrees to face the epidemic and the large amount of news generated in the population feelings of anxiety and suspicion. Considering this whole complex context, it is easily understandable how people “overcrowded” social media with messages dealing with the pandemic, and emergency numbers were overwhelmed by the calls. Thus, in order to find potential predictors of possible new health system overloads, we analysed data both from Twitter and emergency services comparing them to the daily infected time series at a regional level. Particularly, we performed a wavelet analysis in the time-frequency plane, to finely discriminate over time the anticipation capability of the considered potential predictors. In addition, a cross-correlation analysis has been performed to find a synthetic indicator of the time delay between the predictor and the infected time series. Our results show that Twitter data are more related to social and political dynamics, while the emergency calls trends can be further evaluated as a powerful tool to potentially forecast new stress periods. Since we analysed aggregated regional data, and taking into account also the huge geographical heterogeneity of the epidemic spread, a future perspective would be to conduct the same analysis on a more local basis. Public Library of Science 2021-02-25 /pmc/articles/PMC7906455/ /pubmed/33630966 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247854 Text en © 2021 Rivieccio et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Rivieccio, Bruno Alessandro Micheletti, Alessandra Maffeo, Manuel Zignani, Matteo Comunian, Alessandro Nicolussi, Federica Salini, Silvia Manzi, Giancarlo Auxilia, Francesco Giudici, Mauro Naldi, Giovanni Gaito, Sabrina Castaldi, Silvana Biganzoli, Elia CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title | CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title_full | CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title_fullStr | CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title_full_unstemmed | CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title_short | CoViD-19, learning from the past: A wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and Twitter trends in Italian Lombardy region |
title_sort | covid-19, learning from the past: a wavelet and cross-correlation analysis of the epidemic dynamics looking to emergency calls and twitter trends in italian lombardy region |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7906455/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33630966 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247854 |
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