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Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19

Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical mo...

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Autores principales: Rubin, David M., Achari, Shamin, Carlson, Craig S., Letts, Robyn F. R., Pantanowitz, Adam, Postema, Michiel, Richards, Xriz L., Wigdorowitz, Brian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7907159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33643988
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.593417
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author Rubin, David M.
Achari, Shamin
Carlson, Craig S.
Letts, Robyn F. R.
Pantanowitz, Adam
Postema, Michiel
Richards, Xriz L.
Wigdorowitz, Brian
author_facet Rubin, David M.
Achari, Shamin
Carlson, Craig S.
Letts, Robyn F. R.
Pantanowitz, Adam
Postema, Michiel
Richards, Xriz L.
Wigdorowitz, Brian
author_sort Rubin, David M.
collection PubMed
description Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process simple and intuitive. We demonstrate the simplicity of system dynamics by applying it to epidemic models including a model of COVID-19 mutation. We then discuss the ease with which far more complex models can be produced by implementing a model comprising eight differential equations of a Chikungunya epidemic from the literature. Finally, we discuss the learning environment in which the teaching of the epidemic modeling occurs. We advocate the widespread use of system dynamics to empower those who are engaged in infectious disease epidemiology, regardless of their mathematical background.
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spelling pubmed-79071592021-02-27 Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19 Rubin, David M. Achari, Shamin Carlson, Craig S. Letts, Robyn F. R. Pantanowitz, Adam Postema, Michiel Richards, Xriz L. Wigdorowitz, Brian Front Public Health Public Health Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process simple and intuitive. We demonstrate the simplicity of system dynamics by applying it to epidemic models including a model of COVID-19 mutation. We then discuss the ease with which far more complex models can be produced by implementing a model comprising eight differential equations of a Chikungunya epidemic from the literature. Finally, we discuss the learning environment in which the teaching of the epidemic modeling occurs. We advocate the widespread use of system dynamics to empower those who are engaged in infectious disease epidemiology, regardless of their mathematical background. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-02-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7907159/ /pubmed/33643988 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.593417 Text en Copyright © 2021 Rubin, Achari, Carlson, Letts, Pantanowitz, Postema, Richards and Wigdorowitz. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Rubin, David M.
Achari, Shamin
Carlson, Craig S.
Letts, Robyn F. R.
Pantanowitz, Adam
Postema, Michiel
Richards, Xriz L.
Wigdorowitz, Brian
Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title_full Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title_fullStr Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title_short Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19
title_sort facilitating understanding, modeling and simulation of infectious disease epidemics in the age of covid-19
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7907159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33643988
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.593417
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