Clinical significance of risk stratification of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and surgery

OBJECTIVE: Nowadays, there were few studies reporting the risk stratification of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NCRT) and surgery. We aimed to establish a simple risk stratification to help postoperative detection and adjuvant treatment. METHODS: We included 146 patients with locally advanced ESCC who received NCRT followed by esophagectomy. The impacts of clinicopathological factors on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were analyzed. The recurrence site, time, and frequency were recorded as well. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 53 months. The pathological complete respond (pCR) group demonstrated better 5-year OS and DFS (78.6% and 77.0%) than the non-pCR group (44.8% and 35.2%, all P < 0.005). Multivariate analysis for the non-pCR group revealed perineural invasion (PNI) (HR:2.296, P = 0.013) and ypTNM stage (I/II vs III/IV) (HR:1.972, P = 0.046) were considered as independent unfavorable factors affecting OS, while PNI (HR:1.866, P = 0.045) and lymph vessel invasion (LVI) (HR:3.370, P < 0.001) were considered as independent adverse factors for DFS. Based on clinicopathological factors (including pCR, ypTNM stage, PNI, LVI), patients were divided into the low-risk (pCR), mediate-risk (non-pCR without PNI, LVI, stage III/IV), high-risk (non-pCR with one factor of PNI, LVI or stage III/IV (n = 45)), highest risk (non-pCR with two or more factors of PNI, LVI or stage III/IV) groups. The corresponding 5-year OS rates were 78.6%, 60.4%, 49.6%, 18.6%, respectively (P < 0.005) and 5-year DFS rates were 77.0%, 46.9%, 41.1%, 12.1%, respectively (P < 0.005). Adjuvant chemotherapy may improve survival in high or highest risk groups of patients with low prognostic nutritional index (< 49). CONCLUSIONS: A novel risk stratification based on clinicopathological factors may be conducive to postoperative surveillance and guide adjuvant chemotherapy.