Combining two grading systems: the clinical validity and inter-observer variability of the 1973 and 2004 WHO bladder cancer classification systems assessed in a UK cohort with 15 years of prospective follow-up

PURPOSE: Paucity of reliable long-term data on the prognostic implications of the 2004 WHO bladder cancer classification system necessitates utilisation of both this and the 1973 grading systems. This study evaluated, in noninvasive (pTa) bladder tumours, the prognostic value of the 2004 system independently and in combination with the 1973 system while establishing concordance between tertiary centre uropathologists. METHODS: We used a cohort of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients diagnosed between 1991 and 93 where tumour features were gathered prospectively with detailed cystoscopic follow-up data recorded over 15 years. Initial grading was by one senior expert uropathologist (UP1) using the 1973 WHO classification alone. Subsequently, two other expert uropathologists (UP2 and UP3), blinded to the previous grading, re-evaluated the pathology slides and graded the tumours using both the 1973 and 2004 systems. Association between grade and recurrence/progression was analysed and the Cohen Kappa test assessed concordance between pathologists. RESULTS: Of 370 new NMIBC, 229 were staged noninvasive (pTa). Recurrence rates were 46.2% and 50.0% for LGPUC (low-grade papillary urothelial carcinoma) and HGPUC (high-grade papillary urothelial carcinoma), respectively, while progression was seen in 3.9% and 10.0% of LGPUC and HGPUC, respectively. Concordance between uropathologists UP2 and UP3 for the 2004 and 1973 systems was good (Kappa = 0.69) and fair (Kappa = 0.25), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With good inter-observer concordance, the 2004 WHO classification system of noninvasive bladder tumours appears to accurately predict recurrence and progression risks. The combination of both grading systems to low-grade tumours allows further refinement of the natural history.