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Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies

To investigate the influences of heterogeneity and waning immunity on measles transmission, we formulate a network model with periodic transmission rate, and theoretically examine the threshold dynamics. We numerically find that the waning of immunity can lead to an increase in the basic reproductio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Xue, Yuyi, Ruan, Xiaoe, Xiao, Yanni
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7910804/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33679964
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03306-y
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author Xue, Yuyi
Ruan, Xiaoe
Xiao, Yanni
author_facet Xue, Yuyi
Ruan, Xiaoe
Xiao, Yanni
author_sort Xue, Yuyi
collection PubMed
description To investigate the influences of heterogeneity and waning immunity on measles transmission, we formulate a network model with periodic transmission rate, and theoretically examine the threshold dynamics. We numerically find that the waning of immunity can lead to an increase in the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the density of infected individuals. Moreover, there exists a critical level for average degree above which [Formula: see text] increases quicker in the scale-free network than in the random network. To design the effective control strategies for the subpopulations with different activities, we examine the optimal control problem of the heterogeneous model. Numerical studies suggest us no matter what the network is, we should implement control measures as soon as possible once the outbreak takes off, and particularly, the subpopulation with high connectivity should require high intensity of interventions. However, with delayed initiation of controls, relatively strong control measures should be given to groups with medium degrees. Furthermore, the allocation of costs (or resources) should coincide with their contact patterns.
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spelling pubmed-79108042021-03-01 Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies Xue, Yuyi Ruan, Xiaoe Xiao, Yanni Adv Differ Equ Research To investigate the influences of heterogeneity and waning immunity on measles transmission, we formulate a network model with periodic transmission rate, and theoretically examine the threshold dynamics. We numerically find that the waning of immunity can lead to an increase in the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and the density of infected individuals. Moreover, there exists a critical level for average degree above which [Formula: see text] increases quicker in the scale-free network than in the random network. To design the effective control strategies for the subpopulations with different activities, we examine the optimal control problem of the heterogeneous model. Numerical studies suggest us no matter what the network is, we should implement control measures as soon as possible once the outbreak takes off, and particularly, the subpopulation with high connectivity should require high intensity of interventions. However, with delayed initiation of controls, relatively strong control measures should be given to groups with medium degrees. Furthermore, the allocation of costs (or resources) should coincide with their contact patterns. Springer International Publishing 2021-02-27 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7910804/ /pubmed/33679964 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03306-y Text en © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Xue, Yuyi
Ruan, Xiaoe
Xiao, Yanni
Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title_full Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title_fullStr Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title_full_unstemmed Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title_short Measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
title_sort measles dynamics on network models with optimal control strategies
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7910804/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33679964
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03306-y
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