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Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis

Future biogas plants must be able to produce biogas according to demand, which requires proactive feeding management. Therefore, the simulation of biogas production depending on the substrate supply is assumed. Most simulation models are based on the complex Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). T...

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Autores principales: Dittmer, Celina, Krümpel, Johannes, Lemmer, Andreas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915957/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33562485
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9020324
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author Dittmer, Celina
Krümpel, Johannes
Lemmer, Andreas
author_facet Dittmer, Celina
Krümpel, Johannes
Lemmer, Andreas
author_sort Dittmer, Celina
collection PubMed
description Future biogas plants must be able to produce biogas according to demand, which requires proactive feeding management. Therefore, the simulation of biogas production depending on the substrate supply is assumed. Most simulation models are based on the complex Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). The ADM1 includes a large number of parameters for all biochemical and physicochemical process steps, which have to be carefully adjusted to represent the conditions of a respective full-scale biogas plant. Due to a deficiency of reliable measurement technology and process monitoring, nearly none of these parameters are available for full-scale plants. The present research investigation shows a simulation model, which is based on the principle of time series analysis and uses only historical data of biogas formation and solid substrate supply, without differentiation of individual substrates. The results of an extensive evaluation of the model over 366 simulations with 48-h horizon show a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14–18%. The evaluation is based on two different digesters and demonstrated that the model is self-learning and automatically adaptable to the respective application, independent of the substrate’s composition.
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spelling pubmed-79159572021-03-01 Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis Dittmer, Celina Krümpel, Johannes Lemmer, Andreas Microorganisms Article Future biogas plants must be able to produce biogas according to demand, which requires proactive feeding management. Therefore, the simulation of biogas production depending on the substrate supply is assumed. Most simulation models are based on the complex Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1). The ADM1 includes a large number of parameters for all biochemical and physicochemical process steps, which have to be carefully adjusted to represent the conditions of a respective full-scale biogas plant. Due to a deficiency of reliable measurement technology and process monitoring, nearly none of these parameters are available for full-scale plants. The present research investigation shows a simulation model, which is based on the principle of time series analysis and uses only historical data of biogas formation and solid substrate supply, without differentiation of individual substrates. The results of an extensive evaluation of the model over 366 simulations with 48-h horizon show a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14–18%. The evaluation is based on two different digesters and demonstrated that the model is self-learning and automatically adaptable to the respective application, independent of the substrate’s composition. MDPI 2021-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7915957/ /pubmed/33562485 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9020324 Text en © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Dittmer, Celina
Krümpel, Johannes
Lemmer, Andreas
Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title_full Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title_fullStr Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title_short Modeling and Simulation of Biogas Production in Full Scale with Time Series Analysis
title_sort modeling and simulation of biogas production in full scale with time series analysis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7915957/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33562485
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9020324
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