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The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19

This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes...

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Autores principales: Prata, David, Rodrigues, Waldecy, De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique, Moreira, Marina, Camargo, Wainesten, Lisboa, Marcelo, Rossone Reis, Geovane, de Araujo, Humberto Xavier
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7917466/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33680577
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
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author Prata, David
Rodrigues, Waldecy
De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique
Moreira, Marina
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Rossone Reis, Geovane
de Araujo, Humberto Xavier
author_facet Prata, David
Rodrigues, Waldecy
De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique
Moreira, Marina
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Rossone Reis, Geovane
de Araujo, Humberto Xavier
author_sort Prata, David
collection PubMed
description This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively.
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spelling pubmed-79174662021-03-04 The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 Prata, David Rodrigues, Waldecy De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique Moreira, Marina Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Rossone Reis, Geovane de Araujo, Humberto Xavier PeerJ Ecosystem Science This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively. PeerJ Inc. 2021-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7917466/ /pubmed/33680577 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655 Text en © 2021 Prata et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Ecosystem Science
Prata, David
Rodrigues, Waldecy
De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique
Moreira, Marina
Camargo, Wainesten
Lisboa, Marcelo
Rossone Reis, Geovane
de Araujo, Humberto Xavier
The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_full The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_fullStr The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_short The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
title_sort relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of covid-19
topic Ecosystem Science
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7917466/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33680577
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655
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