Cargando…
The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19
This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
PeerJ Inc.
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7917466/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33680577 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655 |
_version_ | 1783657705598091264 |
---|---|
author | Prata, David Rodrigues, Waldecy De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique Moreira, Marina Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Rossone Reis, Geovane de Araujo, Humberto Xavier |
author_facet | Prata, David Rodrigues, Waldecy De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique Moreira, Marina Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Rossone Reis, Geovane de Araujo, Humberto Xavier |
author_sort | Prata, David |
collection | PubMed |
description | This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7917466 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79174662021-03-04 The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 Prata, David Rodrigues, Waldecy De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique Moreira, Marina Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Rossone Reis, Geovane de Araujo, Humberto Xavier PeerJ Ecosystem Science This work explores (non)linear associations between relative humidity and temperature and the incidence of COVID-19 among 27 Brazilian state capital cities in (sub)tropical climates, measured daily from summer through winter. Previous works analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, finds stability by striking a certain balance between relative humidity and temperature, which indicates the possibility of surface contact transmission. The question remains whether seasonal changes associated with climatic fluctuations might actively influence virus survival. Correlations between climatic variables and infectivity rates of SARS-CoV-2 were applied by the use of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and the Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing LOESS nonparametric model. Tropical climates allow for more frequent outdoor human interaction, making such areas ideal for studies on the natural transmission of the virus. Outcomes revealed an inverse relationship between subtropical and tropical climates for the spread of the novel coronavirus and temperature, suggesting a sensitivity behavior to climates zones. Each 1 °C rise of the daily temperature mean correlated with a −11.76% (t = −5.71, p < 0.0001) decrease and a 5.66% (t = 5.68, p < 0.0001) increase in the incidence of COVID-19 for subtropical and tropical climates, respectively. PeerJ Inc. 2021-02-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7917466/ /pubmed/33680577 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655 Text en © 2021 Prata et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. |
spellingShingle | Ecosystem Science Prata, David Rodrigues, Waldecy De Souza Bermejo, Paulo Henrique Moreira, Marina Camargo, Wainesten Lisboa, Marcelo Rossone Reis, Geovane de Araujo, Humberto Xavier The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title | The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title_full | The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title_short | The relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of COVID-19 |
title_sort | relationship between (sub)tropical climates and the incidence of covid-19 |
topic | Ecosystem Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7917466/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33680577 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10655 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT pratadavid therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT rodrigueswaldecy therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT desouzabermejopaulohenrique therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT moreiramarina therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT camargowainesten therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT lisboamarcelo therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT rossonereisgeovane therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT dearaujohumbertoxavier therelationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT pratadavid relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT rodrigueswaldecy relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT desouzabermejopaulohenrique relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT moreiramarina relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT camargowainesten relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT lisboamarcelo relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT rossonereisgeovane relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 AT dearaujohumbertoxavier relationshipbetweensubtropicalclimatesandtheincidenceofcovid19 |