Diagnostic Errors Induced by a Wrong a Priori Diagnosis: A Prospective Randomized Simulator-Based Trial

Preventive strategies against diagnostic errors require the knowledge of underlying mechanisms. We examined the effects of a wrong a priori diagnosis on diagnostic accuracy of a focussed assessment in an acute myocardial infarction scenario. One-hundred-and-fifty-six medical students (cohort 1) were randomized to three study arms differing in the a priori diagnosis revealed: no diagnosis (control group), myocardial infarction (correct diagnosis group), and pulmonary embolism (wrong diagnosis group). Forty-four physicians (cohort 2) were randomized to the control group and the wrong diagnosis group. Primary endpoint was the participants’ final presumptive diagnosis. Among students, the correct diagnosis of an acute myocardial infarction was made by 48/52 (92%) in the control group, 49/52 (94%) in the correct diagnosis group, and 14/52 (27%) in the wrong diagnosis group (p < 0.001 vs. both other groups). Among physicians, the correct diagnosis was made by 20/21 (95%) in the control group and 15/23 (65%) in the wrong diagnosis group (p = 0.023). In the wrong diagnosis group, 31/52 (60%) students and 6/23 (19%) physicians indicated their initially given wrong a priori diagnosis pulmonary embolism as final diagnosis. A wrong a priori diagnosis significantly increases the likelihood of a diagnostic error during a subsequent patient encounter.