Population-level effectiveness of a national HIV preexposure prophylaxis programme in MSM

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate Scotland's national HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in relation to PrEP uptake and associated population-level impact on HIV incidence among MSM. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study within real-world implementation. METHODS: Comparison of HIV diagnoses from national surveillance data and HIV incidence within a retrospective cohort of HIV-negative MSM attending sexual health clinics from the National Sexual Health information system between the 2-year periods pre(July 2015–June 2017) and post(July 2017–June 2019) introduction of PrEP. RESULTS: Of 16 723 MSM attending sexual health services in the PrEP period, 3256 (19.5%) were prescribed PrEP. Between pre-PrEP and PrEP periods, new HIV diagnoses among MSM declined from 229 to 184, respectively [relative risk reduction (RRR): 19.7%, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.5–33.8]; diagnosed recently acquired infections declined from an estimated 73 to 47, respectively (35.6%, 95% CI 7.1–55.4). Among MSM attending sexual health clinics, HIV incidence per 1000 person-years declined from 5.13 (95% CI 3.90–6.64) pre-PrEP to 3.25 (95% CI 2.30–4.47) in the PrEP period (adjusted IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.37–0.87). Compared with the pre-PrEP period, incidence of HIV was lower in the PrEP period for those prescribed PrEP (aIRR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09–0.70) and for those not prescribed PrEP (aIRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.43–1.05). CONCLUSION: We demonstrate national population-level impact of PrEP for the first time in a real-world setting. HIV incidence reduced in MSM who had been prescribed PrEP and, to a lesser extent, in those who had not. Promotion of the benefits of PrEP needs to extend to MSM who do not access sexual health clinics.