Modeling inter-trial variability of pointing movements during visuomotor adaptation

Trial-to-trial variability during visuomotor adaptation is usually explained as the result of two different sources, planning noise and execution noise. The estimation of the underlying variance parameters from observations involving varying feedback conditions cannot be achieved by standard techniques (Kalman filter) because they do not account for recursive noise propagation in a closed-loop system. We therefore developed a method to compute the exact likelihood of the output of a time-discrete and linear adaptation system as has been used to model visuomotor adaptation (Smith et al. in PLoS Biol 4(6):e179, 2006), observed under closed-loop and error-clamp conditions. We identified the variance parameters by maximizing this likelihood and compared the model prediction of the time course of variance and autocovariance with empiric data. The observed increase in variability during the early training phase could not be explained by planning noise and execution noise with constant variances. Extending the model by signal-dependent components of either execution noise or planning noise showed that the observed temporal changes of the trial-to-trial variability can be modeled by signal-dependent planning noise rather than signal-dependent execution noise. Comparing the variance time course between different training schedules showed that the signal-dependent increase of planning variance was specific for the fast adapting mechanism, whereas the assumption of constant planning variance was sufficient for the slow adapting mechanisms.