Is it possible to predict the onset of nocturnal asymptomatic hypoglycemia in patients with type 1 diabetes receiving insulin degludec? Potential role of previous day and next morning glucose values

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To determine whether the occurrence of nocturnal asymptomatic, serious, clinically important hypoglycemia (NSH) could be predicted based on glucose values on the previous day and the following morning of the day of onset. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study examined patients with type 1 diabetes who underwent continuous glucose monitoring assessments and received insulin degludec. NSH was defined as glucose level <54 mg/dL detected between 24.00 and 06.00 hours. The participants were evaluated to determine the following: (i) glucose level at bedtime (24.00 hours) on the previous day (BG); (ii) fasting glucose level (FG); and (iii) the range of post‐breakfast glucose elevation. The patients were divided into those with NSH and those without, and compared using t‐tests. Optimal cut‐off values for relevant parameters for predicting NSH were determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: The study included a total of 31 patients with type 1 diabetes (mean glycated hemoglobin value 7.8 ± 0.7%). NSH occurred in eight patients (26%). BG and FG were significantly lower in those with NSH than in those without (P = 0.044, P < 0.001). The range of post‐breakfast glucose elevation was significantly greater in those with NSH than in those without. The cut‐off glucose values for predicting NSH were as follows: BG = 90 mg/dL (sensitivity 0.83/specificity 0.75/area under the curve 0.79, P = 0.017) and FG = 69 mg/dL (0.83/0.75/0.86, P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that in patients with type 1 diabetes receiving insulin degludec, BG <90 mg/dL and FG <69 mg/dL had an approximately 80% probability of predicting the occurrence of NSH.