Novel Gene Signatures Predictive of Patient Recurrence-Free Survival and Castration Resistance in Prostate Cancer

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Molecular signatures predictive of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and castration resistance are critical for treatment decision-making in prostate cancer (PCa), but the robustness of current signatures is limited. This study aims to identify castration-resistant PCa (CRPC)-associated genes and develop robust RFS and CRPC signatures. Among 287 genes differentially expressed between localized CRPC and hormone-sensitive PCa (HSPC) samples, 6 genes constituted a signature (CRPC-derived prognosis signature, CRPCPS) that predicted RFS. Moreover, a 3-gene panel derived from the 6 CRPCPS genes was capable of distinguishing CRPC from HSPC. The CRPCPS predicted RFS in 5/9 cohorts in the multivariate analysis and maintained prognostic in patients stratified by tumor stage, Gleason score, and lymph node metastasis status. It also predicted overall survival and metastasis-free survival. Notably, the signature was validated in another six independent cohorts. These findings suggest that these two signatures could be robust tools for predicting RFS and CRPC in clinical practice. ABSTRACT: Molecular signatures predictive of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and castration resistance are critical for treatment decision-making in prostate cancer (PCa), but the robustness of current signatures is limited. Here, we applied the Robust Rank Aggregation (RRA) method to PCa transcriptome profiles and identified 287 genes differentially expressed between localized castration-resistant PCa (CRPC) and hormone-sensitive PCa (HSPC). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and stepwise Cox regression analyses of the 287 genes developed a 6-gene signature predictive of RFS in PCa. This signature included NPEPL1, VWF, LMO7, ALDH2, NUAK1, and TPT1, and was named CRPC-derived prognosis signature (CRPCPS). Interestingly, three of these 6 genes constituted another signature capable of distinguishing CRPC from HSPC. The CRPCPS predicted RFS in 5/9 cohorts in the multivariate analysis and remained valid in patients stratified by tumor stage, Gleason score, and lymph node status. The signature also predicted overall survival and metastasis-free survival. The signature’s robustness was demonstrated by the C-index (0.55–0.74) and the calibration plot in all nine cohorts and the 3-, 5-, and 8-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.67–0.77) in three cohorts. The nomogram analyses demonstrated CRPCPS’ clinical applicability. The CRPCPS thus appears useful for RFS prediction in PCa.