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A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions

The complete lifting of travel restrictions to KSA takes place after 3rd of January 2021. There are fears that KSA will confront a new COVID-19 wave, especially when the most of countries that resumed the international flights are suffering now from the second surge. Fortunately, more than one Covid...

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Autores principales: Khedher, Nidhal ben, Kolsi, Lioua, Alsaif, Haitham
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927593/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.02.058
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author Khedher, Nidhal ben
Kolsi, Lioua
Alsaif, Haitham
author_facet Khedher, Nidhal ben
Kolsi, Lioua
Alsaif, Haitham
author_sort Khedher, Nidhal ben
collection PubMed
description The complete lifting of travel restrictions to KSA takes place after 3rd of January 2021. There are fears that KSA will confront a new COVID-19 wave, especially when the most of countries that resumed the international flights are suffering now from the second surge. Fortunately, more than one Covid-19 Vaccine have been rolled out. However, herd immunity could be reached only through widespread vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines need more time to be properly protective, especially in front of people refusing to get vaccinated. A modified multi-stage SEIR model, with distinct reproductive numbers corresponding to before and after lockdown is employed to predict the potential of a new pandemic wave. First, the two-stage model employed to find the best fitting for the reproductive numbers. Then, the model is extended to three-stage one to investigate the relaxation. However, the modified model detects a second wave in early stage from 28th May to 17th June 2020 before even succeeding controlling the first outbreak. Subsequently, the four-stage SEIR model is used to predict the end of the second wave. Moreover, the model is employed to test the potential of a new pandemic surge after the international flights are resumed.
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spelling pubmed-79275932021-03-04 A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions Khedher, Nidhal ben Kolsi, Lioua Alsaif, Haitham Alexandria Engineering Journal Article The complete lifting of travel restrictions to KSA takes place after 3rd of January 2021. There are fears that KSA will confront a new COVID-19 wave, especially when the most of countries that resumed the international flights are suffering now from the second surge. Fortunately, more than one Covid-19 Vaccine have been rolled out. However, herd immunity could be reached only through widespread vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines need more time to be properly protective, especially in front of people refusing to get vaccinated. A modified multi-stage SEIR model, with distinct reproductive numbers corresponding to before and after lockdown is employed to predict the potential of a new pandemic wave. First, the two-stage model employed to find the best fitting for the reproductive numbers. Then, the model is extended to three-stage one to investigate the relaxation. However, the modified model detects a second wave in early stage from 28th May to 17th June 2020 before even succeeding controlling the first outbreak. Subsequently, the four-stage SEIR model is used to predict the end of the second wave. Moreover, the model is employed to test the potential of a new pandemic surge after the international flights are resumed. THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. 2021-08 2021-03-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7927593/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.02.058 Text en © 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Khedher, Nidhal ben
Kolsi, Lioua
Alsaif, Haitham
A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title_full A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title_fullStr A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title_full_unstemmed A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title_short A multi-stage SEIR model to predict the potential of a new COVID-19 wave in KSA after lifting all travel restrictions
title_sort multi-stage seir model to predict the potential of a new covid-19 wave in ksa after lifting all travel restrictions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7927593/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.02.058
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