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Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10

BACKGROUND: Models to predict mortality in trauma play an important role in outcome prediction and severity adjustment, which informs trauma quality assessment and research. Hospitals in China typically use the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-C...

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Autores principales: Wang, Yan-Hua, Wang, Tian-Bing, Zhang, Zi-Xiao, Liu, Hui-Xin, Xu, Ting-Min, Wang, Chu, Jiang, Bao-Guo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7929565/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33560666
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000001371
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author Wang, Yan-Hua
Wang, Tian-Bing
Zhang, Zi-Xiao
Liu, Hui-Xin
Xu, Ting-Min
Wang, Chu
Jiang, Bao-Guo
author_facet Wang, Yan-Hua
Wang, Tian-Bing
Zhang, Zi-Xiao
Liu, Hui-Xin
Xu, Ting-Min
Wang, Chu
Jiang, Bao-Guo
author_sort Wang, Yan-Hua
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Models to predict mortality in trauma play an important role in outcome prediction and severity adjustment, which informs trauma quality assessment and research. Hospitals in China typically use the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) to describe injury. However, there is no suitable prediction model for China. This study attempts to develop a new mortality prediction model based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon and a Chinese database. METHODS: This retrospective study extracted the data of all trauma patients admitted to the Beijing Red Cross Emergency Center, from January 2012 to July 2018 (n = 40,205). We used relevant predictive variables to establish a prediction model following logistic regression analysis. The performance of the model was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. The bootstrapping method was used for internal validation and adjustment of model performance. RESULTS: Sex, age, new region-severity codes, comorbidities, traumatic shock, and coma were finally included in the new model as key predictors of mortality. Among them, coma and traumatic shock had the highest scores in the model. The discrimination and calibration of this model were significant, and the internal validation performance was good. The values of the area under the curve and Brier score for the new model were 0.9640 and 0.0177, respectively; after adjustment of the bootstrapping method, they were 0.9630 and 0.0178, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new model (China Mortality Prediction Model in Trauma based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon) showed great discrimination and calibration, and performed well in internal validation; it should be further verified externally.
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spelling pubmed-79295652021-03-05 Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10 Wang, Yan-Hua Wang, Tian-Bing Zhang, Zi-Xiao Liu, Hui-Xin Xu, Ting-Min Wang, Chu Jiang, Bao-Guo Chin Med J (Engl) Original Articles BACKGROUND: Models to predict mortality in trauma play an important role in outcome prediction and severity adjustment, which informs trauma quality assessment and research. Hospitals in China typically use the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) to describe injury. However, there is no suitable prediction model for China. This study attempts to develop a new mortality prediction model based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon and a Chinese database. METHODS: This retrospective study extracted the data of all trauma patients admitted to the Beijing Red Cross Emergency Center, from January 2012 to July 2018 (n = 40,205). We used relevant predictive variables to establish a prediction model following logistic regression analysis. The performance of the model was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. The bootstrapping method was used for internal validation and adjustment of model performance. RESULTS: Sex, age, new region-severity codes, comorbidities, traumatic shock, and coma were finally included in the new model as key predictors of mortality. Among them, coma and traumatic shock had the highest scores in the model. The discrimination and calibration of this model were significant, and the internal validation performance was good. The values of the area under the curve and Brier score for the new model were 0.9640 and 0.0177, respectively; after adjustment of the bootstrapping method, they were 0.9630 and 0.0178, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new model (China Mortality Prediction Model in Trauma based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon) showed great discrimination and calibration, and performed well in internal validation; it should be further verified externally. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2021-03-05 2021-02-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7929565/ /pubmed/33560666 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000001371 Text en Copyright © 2021 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0
spellingShingle Original Articles
Wang, Yan-Hua
Wang, Tian-Bing
Zhang, Zi-Xiao
Liu, Hui-Xin
Xu, Ting-Min
Wang, Chu
Jiang, Bao-Guo
Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title_full Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title_fullStr Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title_full_unstemmed Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title_short Development and internal validation of China mortality prediction model in trauma based on ICD-10-CM lexicon: CMPMIT-ICD10
title_sort development and internal validation of china mortality prediction model in trauma based on icd-10-cm lexicon: cmpmit-icd10
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7929565/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33560666
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CM9.0000000000001371
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