A classic approach for determining genomic prediction accuracy under terminal drought stress and well-watered conditions in wheat landraces and cultivars

The present study aimed to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction of 16 agronomic traits in a diverse bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) germplasm under terminal drought stress and well-watered conditions in semi-arid environments. An association panel including 87 bread wheat cultivars and 199 landraces from Iran bread wheat germplasm was planted under two irrigation systems in semi-arid climate zones. The whole association panel was genotyped with 9047 single nucleotide polymorphism markers using the genotyping-by-sequencing method. A number of 23 marker-trait associations were selected for traits under each condition, whereas 17 marker-trait associations were common between terminal drought stress and well-watered conditions. The identified marker-trait associations were mostly single nucleotide polymorphisms with minor allele effects. This study examined the effect of population structure, genomic selection method (ridge regression-best linear unbiased prediction, genomic best-linear unbiased predictions, and Bayesian ridge regression), training set size, and type of marker set on genomic prediction accuracy. The prediction accuracies were low (-0.32) to moderate (0.52). A marker set including 93 significant markers identified through genome-wide association studies with P values ≤ 0.001 increased the genomic prediction accuracy for all traits under both conditions. This study concluded that obtaining the highest genomic prediction accuracy depends on the extent of linkage disequilibrium, the genetic architecture of trait, genetic diversity of the population, and the genomic selection method. The results encouraged the integration of genome-wide association study and genomic selection to enhance genomic prediction accuracy in applied breeding programs.