The Enigma of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic in China

Nearly 17 years ago China launched its National HIV/AIDS Response Program, yet the epidemic still is not slowing. New cases and new deaths increase every year—in 2005, 40 711 people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) were diagnosed and 5729 died, whereas in 2019, 148 598 PLWH were diagnosed and 31 522 died. Moreover, the estimated PLWH population in China has risen to >1.25 million. However, epidemic data are worryingly complex and difficult to interpret, presenting challenges to the redirection and refocusing of efforts toward achievement of control. Here we present three “windows” into China’s epidemic data. From these viewpoints, it appears we still do not know how much infection exists, how much transmission is occurring, and in what contexts transmission happens. The enigma that is China’s HIV epidemic must be better understood. A new research agenda must be developed and executed if we are to change the future of HIV in China.