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Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios

OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progre...

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Autores principales: Frost, Isabel, Craig, Jessica, Osena, Gilbert, Hauck, Stephanie, Kalanxhi, Erta, Schueller, Emily, Gatalo, Oliver, Yang, Yupeng, Tseng, Katie K, Lin, Gary, Klein, Eili
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7941678/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34006031
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044149
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author Frost, Isabel
Craig, Jessica
Osena, Gilbert
Hauck, Stephanie
Kalanxhi, Erta
Schueller, Emily
Gatalo, Oliver
Yang, Yupeng
Tseng, Katie K
Lin, Gary
Klein, Eili
author_facet Frost, Isabel
Craig, Jessica
Osena, Gilbert
Hauck, Stephanie
Kalanxhi, Erta
Schueller, Emily
Gatalo, Oliver
Yang, Yupeng
Tseng, Katie K
Lin, Gary
Klein, Eili
author_sort Frost, Isabel
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.
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spelling pubmed-79416782021-03-09 Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios Frost, Isabel Craig, Jessica Osena, Gilbert Hauck, Stephanie Kalanxhi, Erta Schueller, Emily Gatalo, Oliver Yang, Yupeng Tseng, Katie K Lin, Gary Klein, Eili BMJ Open Epidemiology OBJECTIVES: As of 13 January 2021, there have been 3 113 963 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 74 619 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policymaking decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. DESIGN: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analysed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB). RESULTS: In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645 081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa, projected peak severe infections increase from 162 977 to 2 03 261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives. BMJ Publishing Group 2021-03-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7941678/ /pubmed/34006031 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044149 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Frost, Isabel
Craig, Jessica
Osena, Gilbert
Hauck, Stephanie
Kalanxhi, Erta
Schueller, Emily
Gatalo, Oliver
Yang, Yupeng
Tseng, Katie K
Lin, Gary
Klein, Eili
Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title_full Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title_fullStr Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title_short Modelling COVID-19 transmission in Africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
title_sort modelling covid-19 transmission in africa: countrywise projections of total and severe infections under different lockdown scenarios
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7941678/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34006031
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-044149
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