Factors predicting long-term outcomes of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma after primary curative treatment: the role of surgical or nonsurgical methods

BACKGROUND: We quantified the elusive effects of putative factors on the clinical course of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after primary surgical or nonsurgical curative treatment. METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed early HCC who received surgical resection (SR) or percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) with or without transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) from January 2003 to December 2016 were enrolled. The cumulative overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates were compared. A polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate factors for early and late recurrence. Independent predictors of OS were identified using Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-five patients underwent SR, and 176 patients underwent RFA, of whom 72 were treated with TACE followed by RFA. Neither match analysis based on propensity score nor multiple adjustment regression yielded a significant difference in DFS and OS between the two groups. Multivariate analysis showed high AFP (> 20 ng/mL), and multinodularity significantly increased risk of early recurrence (< 1 year). In contrast, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus and multinodularity were significantly associated with late recurrence (> 1 year). Multivariate Cox regression with recurrent events as time-varying covariates identified older age (HR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.01–2.36), clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) (HR = 1.97, 95% CI:1.26–3.08), early recurrence (HR = 6.62, 95% CI:3.79–11.6) and late recurrence (HR = 3.75, 95% CI:1.99–7.08) as independent risk factors of mortality. A simple risk score showed fair calibration and discrimination in early HCC patients after primary curative treatment. In the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A subgroup, SR significantly improved DFS compared to RFA with or without TACE. CONCLUSION: Host and tumor factors rather than the initial treatment modalities determine the outcomes of early HCC after primary curative treatment. Statistical models based on recurrence types can predict early HCC prognosis but further external validation is necessary. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-07948-9.