Frailty, walking ability and self-rated health in predicting institutionalization: an 18-year follow-up study among Finnish community-dwelling older people

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, there is a need for an instrument to screen older people at risk of institutionalization. AIMS: To analyze the association of frailty, walking-ability and self-rated health (SRH) with institutionalization in Finnish community-dwelling older people. METHODS: In this prospective study with 10- and 18-year follow-ups, frailty was assessed using FRAIL Scale (FS) (n = 1087), Frailty Index (FI) (n = 1061) and PRISMA-7 (n = 1055). Walking ability was assessed as self-reported ability to walk 400 m (n = 1101). SRH was assessed by a question of general SRH (n = 1105). Cox regression model was used to analyze the association of the explanatory variables with institutionalization. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 73.0 (range 64.0‒97.0) years. Prevalence of institutionalization was 40.8%. In unadjusted models, frailty was associated with a higher risk of institutionalization by FS in 10-year follow-up, and FI in both follow-ups. Associations by FI persisted after age- and gender-adjustments in both follow-ups. By PRISMA-7, frailty predicted a higher risk of institutionalization in both follow-ups. In unadjusted models, inability to walk 400 m predicted a higher risk of institutionalization in both follow-ups and after adjustments in 10-year follow-up. Poor SRH predicted a higher risk of institutionalization in unadjusted models in both follow-ups and after adjustments in 10-year follow-up. DISCUSSION: Simple self-reported items of walking ability and SRH seemed to be comparable with frailty indexes in predicting institutionalization among community-dwelling older people in 10-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In clinical practice, self-reported walking ability and SRH could be used to screen those at risk. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s40520-020-01551-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.