A Pilot Study Using Frequent Inpatient Assessments of Suicidal Thinking to Predict Short-Term Postdischarge Suicidal Behavior

IMPORTANCE: The weeks following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization are the highest-risk period for suicide attempts. Real-time monitoring of suicidal thoughts via smartphone prompts may be more indicative of short-term risk than a single, cross-sectional assessment. OBJECTIVE: To test whether modeling dynamic changes in real-time suicidal thoughts during psychiatric hospitalization can improve predictions of postdischarge suicide attempts vs using only baseline (ie, admission) data or using the mean level of real-time suicidal thoughts during hospitalization. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this prognostic study, 83 adults recruited from the inpatient psychiatric unit at Massachusetts General Hospital completed ecological momentary assessment surveys of suicidal thinking 4 to 6 times per day during hospitalization as well as brief follow-up surveys assessing suicide attempts at 2 and 4 weeks after discharge. Participants completed at least 3 real-time monitoring surveys. Inclusion criteria included hospitalization for suicidal thoughts and/or behaviors and English fluency. Data were collected from January 2016 to December 2018 and analyzed from January to December 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was suicide attempt in the month after discharge. RESULTS: Of 83 participants (mean [SD] age, 38.4 [13.6] years; 43 [51.8%] male participants; 69 [83.1%] White individuals), 9 (10.8%) made a suicide attempt in the month after discharge. Mean cross-validated AUC for elastic net models revealed predictive accuracy was fair for the model using baseline data (area under the curve [AUC], 0.71; first to third quartile, 0.55-0.88), good for the model using the mean level of real-time suicidal thoughts during hospitalization (AUC, 0.81; first to third quartile, 0.67-0.91), and best for the model using dynamic changes in real-time suicidal thoughts during hospitalization (AUC, 0.89; first to third quartile, 0.81-0.97); this pattern of results held for other classification metrics (eg, accuracy, positive predictive value, Brier score) and when using different cross-validation procedures. Features assessing rapid fluctuations in suicidal thinking emerged as the strongest predictors of posthospital suicide attempts. A final set of models incorporating percentage missingness further improved both the mean (mean AUC, 0.93; first to third quartile, 0.90-1.00) and dynamic feature (mean AUC, 0.93; first to third quartile, 0.88-1.00) models. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, collecting real-time data about suicidal thinking during the course of hospitalization significantly improved short-term prediction of posthospitalization suicide attempts. Models including dynamic changes in suicidal thinking over time yielded the best prediction; features that captured rapid changes in suicidal thoughts were particularly strong predictors. Survey noncompletion also emerged as an important predictor of posthospitalization suicide attempts.