Differential Effect of Metabolic Health and Obesity on Incident Heart Failure: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Metabolically healthy obese (MHO) individuals and their association with cardiometabolic diseases have remained controversial. We aimed to explore the risk of incident heart failure (HF) based on the baseline metabolic health and obesity status as well as their transition over 2 years. METHODS: The Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort data of 514,886 participants were analyzed. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥25 kg/m(2) according to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The metabolic health and obesity status were evaluated at baseline and after two years. Study participants were followed to either the date of newly diagnosed HF or the last follow-up visit, whichever occurred first. RESULTS: The MHO group comprised 9.1% of the entire population and presented a better baseline metabolic profile than the metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO) and metabolicavlly unhealthy obese (MUO) groups. During the median 71.3 months of follow-up, HF developed in 5,406 (1.5%) participants. The adjusted hazard ratios [HRs (95% CI)] of HF at baseline compared with the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) group were 1.29 [1.20–1.39], 1.37 [1.22–1.53], and 1.63 [1.50–1.76] for MUNO, MHO, and MUO groups, respectively. With the stable MHNO group as reference, transition into metabolically unhealthy status (MUNO and MUO) increased the risk of HF, regardless of the baseline status. Subjects who were obese at both baseline and follow-up showed an increased risk of HF, regardless of their metabolic health status. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic health and obesity status and their transition can predict the risk of incident HF. Losing metabolic health in baseline non-obese and obese individuals and remaining obese in baseline obese individuals showed a significantly increased risk of incident HF. Maintaining good metabolic health and a lean body may prevent the development of HF.