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Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies
This paper uses transformed subsystem of ordinary differential equation [Formula: see text] model, with vital dynamics of birth and death rates, and temporary immunity (of infectious individuals or vaccinated susceptible) to evaluate the disease-free [Formula: see text] and endemic [Formula: see tex...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7951801/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33727767 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110823 |
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author | Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh Salimifard, Khodakaram |
author_facet | Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh Salimifard, Khodakaram |
author_sort | Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh |
collection | PubMed |
description | This paper uses transformed subsystem of ordinary differential equation [Formula: see text] model, with vital dynamics of birth and death rates, and temporary immunity (of infectious individuals or vaccinated susceptible) to evaluate the disease-free [Formula: see text] and endemic [Formula: see text] equilibrium points, using the Jacobian matrix eigenvalues [Formula: see text] of both disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] and endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text] for COVID-19 infectious disease to show S, E, I, and R ratios to the population in time-series. In order to obtain the disease-free equilibrium point, globally asymptotically stable ([Formula: see text]), the effect of control strategies has been added to the model (in order to decrease transmission rate [Formula: see text] and reinforce susceptible to recovered flow), to determine how much they are effective, in a mass immunization program. The effect of transmission rates [Formula: see text] (from S to E) and [Formula: see text] (from R to S) varies, and when vaccination effect [Formula: see text] , is added to the model, disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable, and the endemic equilibrium point [Formula: see text] , is locally unstable. The initial conditions for the decrease in transmission rates of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reached the corresponding disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] locally unstable, and globally asymptotically stable for endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text]. The initial conditions for the decrease in transmission rate [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and increase in [Formula: see text] reached the corresponding disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] globally asymptotically stable, and locally unstable in endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text]. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7951801 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier Ltd. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-79518012021-03-12 Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh Salimifard, Khodakaram Chaos Solitons Fractals Article This paper uses transformed subsystem of ordinary differential equation [Formula: see text] model, with vital dynamics of birth and death rates, and temporary immunity (of infectious individuals or vaccinated susceptible) to evaluate the disease-free [Formula: see text] and endemic [Formula: see text] equilibrium points, using the Jacobian matrix eigenvalues [Formula: see text] of both disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] and endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text] for COVID-19 infectious disease to show S, E, I, and R ratios to the population in time-series. In order to obtain the disease-free equilibrium point, globally asymptotically stable ([Formula: see text]), the effect of control strategies has been added to the model (in order to decrease transmission rate [Formula: see text] and reinforce susceptible to recovered flow), to determine how much they are effective, in a mass immunization program. The effect of transmission rates [Formula: see text] (from S to E) and [Formula: see text] (from R to S) varies, and when vaccination effect [Formula: see text] , is added to the model, disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] is globally asymptotically stable, and the endemic equilibrium point [Formula: see text] , is locally unstable. The initial conditions for the decrease in transmission rates of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] reached the corresponding disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] locally unstable, and globally asymptotically stable for endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text]. The initial conditions for the decrease in transmission rate [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] and increase in [Formula: see text] reached the corresponding disease-free equilibrium [Formula: see text] globally asymptotically stable, and locally unstable in endemic equilibrium [Formula: see text]. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-05 2021-03-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7951801/ /pubmed/33727767 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110823 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Shakhany, Mohammad Qaleh Salimifard, Khodakaram Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title | Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title_full | Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title_fullStr | Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title_short | Predicting the dynamical behavior of COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
title_sort | predicting the dynamical behavior of covid-19 epidemic and the effect of control strategies |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7951801/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33727767 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110823 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT shakhanymohammadqaleh predictingthedynamicalbehaviorofcovid19epidemicandtheeffectofcontrolstrategies AT salimifardkhodakaram predictingthedynamicalbehaviorofcovid19epidemicandtheeffectofcontrolstrategies |