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An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics

Compartmental models in epidemiology characterize the spread of an infectious disease by formulating ordinary differential equations to quantify the rate of disease progression through subpopulations defined by the Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) scheme. The classic rate law central to the SIR...

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Autores principales: Mun, Eun-Young, Geng, Feng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7951879/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33705424
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247512
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author Mun, Eun-Young
Geng, Feng
author_facet Mun, Eun-Young
Geng, Feng
author_sort Mun, Eun-Young
collection PubMed
description Compartmental models in epidemiology characterize the spread of an infectious disease by formulating ordinary differential equations to quantify the rate of disease progression through subpopulations defined by the Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) scheme. The classic rate law central to the SIR compartmental models assumes that the rate of transmission is first order regarding the infectious agent. The current study demonstrates that this assumption does not always hold and provides a theoretical rationale for a more general rate law, inspired by mixed-order chemical reaction kinetics, leading to a modified mathematical model for non-first-order kinetics. Using observed data from 127 countries during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrated that the modified epidemic model is more realistic than the classic, first-order-kinetics based model. We discuss two coefficients associated with the modified epidemic model: transmission rate constant k and transmission reaction order n. While k finds utility in evaluating the effectiveness of control measures due to its responsiveness to external factors, n is more closely related to the intrinsic properties of the epidemic agent, including reproductive ability. The rate law for the modified compartmental SIR model is generally applicable to mixed-kinetics disease transmission with heterogeneous transmission mechanisms. By analyzing early-stage epidemic data, this modified epidemic model may be instrumental in providing timely insight into a new epidemic and developing control measures at the beginning of an outbreak.
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spelling pubmed-79518792021-03-22 An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics Mun, Eun-Young Geng, Feng PLoS One Research Article Compartmental models in epidemiology characterize the spread of an infectious disease by formulating ordinary differential equations to quantify the rate of disease progression through subpopulations defined by the Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) scheme. The classic rate law central to the SIR compartmental models assumes that the rate of transmission is first order regarding the infectious agent. The current study demonstrates that this assumption does not always hold and provides a theoretical rationale for a more general rate law, inspired by mixed-order chemical reaction kinetics, leading to a modified mathematical model for non-first-order kinetics. Using observed data from 127 countries during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrated that the modified epidemic model is more realistic than the classic, first-order-kinetics based model. We discuss two coefficients associated with the modified epidemic model: transmission rate constant k and transmission reaction order n. While k finds utility in evaluating the effectiveness of control measures due to its responsiveness to external factors, n is more closely related to the intrinsic properties of the epidemic agent, including reproductive ability. The rate law for the modified compartmental SIR model is generally applicable to mixed-kinetics disease transmission with heterogeneous transmission mechanisms. By analyzing early-stage epidemic data, this modified epidemic model may be instrumental in providing timely insight into a new epidemic and developing control measures at the beginning of an outbreak. Public Library of Science 2021-03-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7951879/ /pubmed/33705424 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247512 Text en © 2021 Mun, Geng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Mun, Eun-Young
Geng, Feng
An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title_full An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title_fullStr An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title_full_unstemmed An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title_short An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
title_sort epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7951879/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33705424
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247512
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