Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt

In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, t...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Omar, Othman A.M., Elbarkouky, Reda A., Ahmed, Hamdy M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7952136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33728261
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018
_version_ 1783663660537741312
author Omar, Othman A.M.
Elbarkouky, Reda A.
Ahmed, Hamdy M.
author_facet Omar, Othman A.M.
Elbarkouky, Reda A.
Ahmed, Hamdy M.
author_sort Omar, Othman A.M.
collection PubMed
description In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7952136
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-79521362021-03-12 Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt Omar, Othman A.M. Elbarkouky, Reda A. Ahmed, Hamdy M. Results Phys Article In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented. The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2021-04 2021-03-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7952136/ /pubmed/33728261 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018 Text en © 2021 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Omar, Othman A.M.
Elbarkouky, Reda A.
Ahmed, Hamdy M.
Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title_full Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title_fullStr Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title_full_unstemmed Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title_short Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
title_sort fractional stochastic models for covid-19: case study of egypt
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7952136/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33728261
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018
work_keys_str_mv AT omarothmanam fractionalstochasticmodelsforcovid19casestudyofegypt
AT elbarkoukyredaa fractionalstochasticmodelsforcovid19casestudyofegypt
AT ahmedhamdym fractionalstochasticmodelsforcovid19casestudyofegypt

Ejemplares similares